The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasonline on Blood Lead in Children

Zahran, Sammy and Iverson, Terrence and McElmurry, Shawn and Weilar, Stephan (2014): The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasonline on Blood Lead in Children.

Abstract

Lead is a neurotoxin with developmentally harmful effects in children. In the United States, over half of the current flow of lead into the atmosphere is attributable to lead-formulated aviation gasoline (avgas), used in a large fraction of piston-engine aircraft. Deposition of lead from avgas may pose a health risk to children proximate to airport facilities that service lead-emitting aircraft. Extrapolating from epidemiological evidence on the health and human capital costs of lead poisoning, various public interest firms have petitioned the EPA to find endangerment from and regulate lead emitted by piston-engine aircraft. In the absence of sufficient empirical evidence linking avgas to blood lead levels (BLLs) in children, the EPA has ruled against petitions to find endangerment. To address an EPA request for more evidence, we constructed a novel dataset that links time and spatially referenced blood lead data from 1,043,391 children to 448 nearby airports in Michigan, as well as a subset of airports with detailed data on the volume of piston-engine aircraft traffic. Across a series of tests, and adjusting for other known sources of lead exposure, we find that child BLLs: 1) increase dose-responsively in proximity to airports, 2) decline measurably in children residing in neighborhoods proximate to airports in the months after 9-11, and 3) increase dose-responsively in the flow of piston-engine aircraft traffic. To quantify the policy relevance of our results, we provide a conservative estimate of the social damages attributable to avgas consumption.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Child Health; Lead Exposure; Blood Lead Levels; Aviation Gasoline
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I12 - Health Behavior; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling

References

Almond, D., Currie, J., 2010. Human capital development before age five. NBER Working Paper 15827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Callahan, C. 2010. The Plane Truth: Air Quality Impacts of Airport Operations and Strategies for Sustainability: A Case Study of the Los Angeles World Airports. Masters Degree Thesis: Urban Planning, UCLA.

Carr, E., Lee, M., Marin, K., Holder, C., Hoyer, M., Pedde, M., Cook, R., Toumac, J. 2011. Development and evaluation of an air quality modeling approach to assess near-field impacts of lead emissions from piston-engine aircraft operating on leaded aviation gasoline. Atmos. Environ. 45, 5795–5804

CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) 2012a. Low Level Lead Exposure Harms Children: A Renewed Call for Primary Prevention, Report of the Advisory Committee on Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/acclpp/final_document_030712.pdf [Accessed 21 October 2014].

CDC 2012b. CDC Response to Advisory Committee on Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Recommendations in “Low Level Pb Exposure Harms Children: A Renewed Call of Primary Prevention”. http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/acclpp/cdc_response_lead_exposure_recs.pdf [Accessed 21 October 2014].

Canfield, RL., Henderson, CR., Cory-Slechta, DA., Cox, C., Jusko, TA., Lanphear, BP. 2003. Intellectual impairment in children with blood lead concentrations below 10 μg per deciliter. N Engl J Med. 348, 1517–1526.

Cecil, KM., Brubaker, CJ., Adler, CM., Dietrich, KN., Altaye, M., Egelhoff, JC., et al. 2008. Decreased brain volume in adults with childhood lead exposure. PLoS Med. 5, e112.

Cecil, KM., Dietrich, KN., Altaye, M., Egelhoff, JC., Lindquist, DM., Brubaker, CJ., et al. 2011. Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in adults with childhood Lead exposure. Environ Health Perspect. 119, 403–8

Chandramouli, K., Steer, CD., Ellis, M., Emond, AM. 2009. Effects of early childhood lead exposure on academic performance and behaviour of school age children. Arch Dis Child. 94, 844-848

Cunha, F., Heckman JJ., Investing in our young people. 2010. NBER Working Paper 16201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Dietrich, KN., Ris, MD., Succop, PA., Berger, OG., Bornschein, RL. 2001. Early exposure to lead and juvenile delinquency. Neurotoxicology and Teratology. 23: 511 – 518

Doyle, O., Harmon, C., Heckman, JJ., Logue, C., Moon, S. 2013. Measuring investment in human capital formation: An experimental analysis of early life outcomes. NBER Working Papers 19316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). U.S. Product Supplied of Aviation Gasoline [website]. Washington, DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (updated 27 Sep 2012). Available: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGAUPUS1&f=A[accessed 21 Dec 2012]. EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) 2008. National Emissions Inventory Data and Documentation [website]. Research Triangle Park, NC:Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (updated 28 Aug 2012). Available: http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/net/2008inventory.html[accessed 21 Dec 2012]. EPA 2010a. Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Lead Emissions from Piston-Engine Aircraft Using Leaded Aviation Gasoline. United State Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality. EPA-420-F-10-013.

U.S. EPA. 2010b. Calculating Piston-Engine Aircraft Airport Inventories for Lead for the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. United State Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-420-B-10-044.

Fadrowski, JJ., Abraham, AG., Navas-Acien, A., Guallar, E., Weaver, VM., Furth, SL. 2013. Blood Lead Level and Measured Glomerular Filtration Rate in Children with Chronic Kidney Disease. Environ Health Perspect. 121 (8), 965–970.

Farfel, MR., Orlova, AO., Lees, PSJ., Rohde, C., Ashley, PJ., Chisolm, JJ. 2003. A study of urban housing demolitions as sources of lead in ambient dust: Demolition practices and exterior dust fall. Environ Health Perspect. 111(9), 1228-34.

Farfel, MR., Orlova, AO., Lees, PSJ., Rohde, C., Ashley, PJ., Chisolm, JJ. 2005. A study of urban housing demolition as a source of lead in ambient dust on sidewalks, streets, and alleys. Env Res. 99, 204-213. Federal Aviation Administration. 2012. Final Report: Unleaded avgas findings and recommendations. Unleaded Avgas transition aviation rulemaking committee. Available: http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/media/Avgas.ARC.RR.2.17.12.pdf

Filippelli, GM., Laidlaw, M., Latimer, J., Raftis, R. 2005. Urban lead poisoning and medical geology: an unfinished story. GSA Today. 15, 4–11.

GAMA. 2011 General Aviation Statistical Databook & Industry Outlook. Washington, DC. General Aviation Manufacturers Association. http://www.gama.aero/files/GAMA_DATABOOK_2011_web_0.pdf[accessed 21 Dec 2012].

Gould, E. 2009. Childhood lead poisoning: Conservative estimates of the social and economic benefits of lead hazard control. Environ Health Perspect. 117 (7), 1162-1167.

Grosse, SD., Matte, TD., Schwartz, J., Jackson, RJ. 2002. Economic gains resulting from the reduction in children’s exposure to lead in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 110, 563–569. Illinois Environmental Protection Agency BoA. 2002. Final Report: Chicago O’Hare Airport Air Toxic Monitoring Program June–December, 2000. Available: http://www.epa.state.il.us/air/ohare/ohare-toxic-report.pdf [accessed 18 September 2013] Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, 2002. Chicago O’Hare Airport Air Toxic Monitoring Program June-December, 2000. Illinois Environmental Protection Agency Bureau of Air, Springfield, IL.

Jones, DJ. 2012. Primary prevention and health outcomes: Treatment of residential lead-based paint hazards and the prevalence of childhood lead poisoning. Journal of Urban Economics 71, 151–164

Jusko, TA., Henderson, CR., Lanphear, BP., Cory-Slechta, DA., Parsons, PJ., Canfield, RL. 2008. Blood lead concentrations < 10 microg/dL and child intelligence at 6 years of age. Environ Health Perspect. 116 (2), 243-8.

Kemper, AR., Bordley, WC., Downs, SM. 1998. Cost-effectiveness analysis of lead poisoning screening strategies following the 1997 guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Arch Pediatr Adolesc. Med 152, 1202–1208.

Kessler, R. 2013. Sunset for leaded aviation gasoline? Environ Health Perspect. 121 (2), A54-57.

Laidlaw MAS., Mielke, HW., Filippelli, GM., Johnson, DL., Gonzales, CR. 2005. Seasonality and children’s blood lead levels: Developing a predictive model using climatic variables and blood lead data from Indianapolis, Indiana, Syracuse, New York and New Orleans, Louisiana (USA). Environ Health Perspect. 113 (6), 793–800.

Laidlaw, MAS., Zahran, S., Mielke, HW., Taylor, MP., Filippelli, GM. 2012. Re-suspension of lead contaminated urban soil as a dominant source of atmospheric lead in Birmingham, Chicago, Detroit and Pittsburgh, USA. Atmos Environ. 49, 302–10.

Lanphear, BP., Hornung, R., Khoury, J., Yolton, K., Baghurst, P., Bellinger, DC., et al. 2005. Low-level environmental lead exposure and children’s intellectual function: an international pooled analysis. Environ Health Perspect 113, 894–899.

Mielke, HW., Zahran, S. 2012. The urban rise and fall of air lead (Pb) and the latent surge and retreat of societal violence. Environment International. 43, 48–55

Miranda, ML., Kim, D., Overstreet Galeano, MA., Paul, CJ., Hull, AP., Morgan, SP. 2007. The Relationship between Early Childhood Blood Lead Levels and Performance on End of Grade Tests, Environmental Health Perspectives. 115 (8), 1242-1247.

Miranda, ML., Anthopolos, R., Hastings, D. 2011. A Geospatial Analysis of the Effects of Aviation Gasoline on Childhood Blood Lead Levels. Environ Health Perspect. 119 (10), 1513–1516.

Needleman, HL., Gatsonis, CA. 1990. Low-level lead exposure and the IQ of children. A meta-analysis of modern studies. JAMA. 263 (5), 673-8.

Nevin, R., Jacobs, DE., Berg, M., Cohen, J. 2008. Monetary benefits of preventing childhood lead poisoning with lead-safe window replacement. Environ Res. 106, 410–419.

Nevin, R. 2006. Understanding international crime trends: the legacy of preschool lead exposure. Environ Res. 104, 315–336.

Nigg, JT., Nikolas, M., Knottnerus, GM., Cavanagh, K., Friderici, K. 2010. Confirmation and Extension of Association of Blood Lead with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and ADHD Symptom Domains at Population-Typical Exposure Levels. J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 51 (1), 58–65.

Olson, M. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Piazza, B. 1999. Santa Monica Municipal Airport: A Report on the Generation and Downwind Extent of Emissions Generated from Aircraft and Ground Support Operations. Available: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/communityassessment.nsf/

Pichery, C., Bellanger, M., Zmirou-Navier, D., Glorennec, P., Hartemann, P., Grandjean, P. 2011. Childhood lead exposure in France: benefit estimation and partial cost-benefit analysis of lead hazard control. Environ Health. 10, 44

Quinn, P. 2013. Road density as a proxy for population density in regional-scale risk modeling. Natural Hazards. 65 (3), 1227-1248.

Rabito, FA., Iqbal, S., Shorter, CF., Osman, P., Philips, PE., Langlois, E., White, LE. 2007. The association between demolition activity and children's blood lead levels. Environ Res. 103 (3), 345-51.

Reyes, JW. 2007. Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime. B E J Econ Anal Policy. 7 (1), Article 51, http://www.bepress.com/ bejeap/vol7/iss1/art51/.

Reyes, JW. 2012. Lead policy and academic performance: Insights from Massachusetts. NBER Working Paper 18327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Reyes, JW. 2014. Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents. NBER Working Paper 20366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Salkever, DS. 1995. Updated estimates of earnings benefits from reduced exposure of children to environmental lead. Environ Res 70, 1–6.

SCAQMD, 2010. General Aviation Airport Air Monitoring Study Final Report, Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX.

Schwartz, J. 1994. Societal benefits of reducing lead exposure. Environ Res. 66, 105–124.

Selevan, SG., Rice, DC., Hogan, KA., Euling, SY., Pfahles-Hutchens, A., Bethel, J. 2003. Blood Lead Concentration and Delayed Puberty in Girls. N Engl J Med. 348, 1527-1536.

Surkan, PJ., Zhang, A., Trachtenberg, F., Daniel, DB., McKinlay, S., Bellinger, DC. 2007. Neuropsychological function in children with blood lead levels <10 microg/dL. Neurotoxicology. 28 (6), 1170-7. Tetra Tech, Inc. 2007. Destin Airport Air Sampling Project Executive Summary. Prepared for City of Destin, Florida. Destin, FL. Available: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/85649998/Project-Management-Sample-Executive-Summary. U.S. DHHS (Department of Health and Human Sciences) National Toxicology Program. 2012. Monograph on the Health Effects of Low-level Lead. http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/NTP/ohat/Pb/Final/MonographHealthEffectsLowLevelPb_Final_508.pdf [Accessed 21 February 2013]. Williams, PL., Sergeyev, O., Lee, MM., Korrick, SA., Burns, JS., Humblet, O., et al. 2010. Blood lead levels and delayed onset of puberty in a longitudinal study of Russian boys. Pediatrics. 125 (5), e1088–e1096.

Zahran, S., Mielke, HW., Weiler, S., Berry, KJ., Gonzales, CR. 2009. Children's blood lead and standardized test performance response as indicators of neurotoxicity in metropolitan New Orleans elementary schools. NeuroToxicology. 30 (6), 888-97.

Zahran, S., Mielke, HW., Gonzales, CR., Powell, ET., Weiler, S. 2010. New Orleans before and after Hurricanes Katrina/Rita: a quasi-experiment of the association between soil Pb and children's blood lead. Environ Sci Technol. 44, 4433–40.

Zahran, S., Mielke, HW., Weiler, S., Gonzales, CR. 2011. Nonlinear associations between blood lead in children, age of child, and quantity of soil lead in metropolitan New Orleans. Sci Tot Environ. 409 (7),1211-8.

Zahran, S., Laidlaw, MAS., McElmurry, SP., Filippelli, GM., Taylor, M. 2013 Linking source and effect: Resuspended soil lead, air lead, and children’s blood lead levels in Detroit, Michigan. Environ Sci Technol. 47 (6), 2839–2845.