On the spectrum of oscillations in economics

Ledenyov, Dimitri O. and Ledenyov, Viktor O. (2015): On the spectrum of oscillations in economics.

Abstract

Article 1) researches the spectrum of different time dependent oscillations of economic variables in the economics, 2) introduces the notion of the Ledenyov discrete time signals in the economics for the first time, 3) proposes the Ledenyov discrete time signals theory in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, 4) describes the developed software program to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time signals and the continuous time signals in the nonlinear dynamic economic system over the selected time period. Authors show that 1) the discrete time signals and 2) the continuous time signals may be present in the spectrum of the different oscillations of the economic variables in the economies of scale and scope. We assume that 1) the discrete time signals, and 2) the continuous time signals may have the information money fields in agreement with the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system. We developed the MicroSA software program 1) to analyze the spectrum analysis of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system, including the discrete time signals and the continuous time signals; 2) to make the computer modeling and to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time signals and the continuous time signals in the nonlinear dynamic economic system, for applications by a) the central banks with the purpose to make the strategic decisions on the monetary policies, financial stability policies, and b) the commercial/investment banks with the aim to make the business decisions on the minimum capital allocation, countercyclical capital buffer creation, and capital investments.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: spectrum analysis of economic oscillations, discrete-time signals, continuous-time (continuous wave) signals, information money field of cyclic oscillation, generation of discrete-and continuous- time signals, amplitude of cyclic oscillation, frequency of cyclic oscillation, wavelength of cyclic oscillation, period of cyclic oscillation, phase of cyclic oscillation, mixing of cyclic oscillations, harmonics of cyclic oscillation, nonlinearities of cyclic oscillation, Juglar fixed investment cycle, Kitchin inventory cycle, Kondratieff long wave cycle, Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle, econophysics, econometrics, nonlinear dynamic economic system, economy of scale and scope, macroeconomics.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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418. Protter P E 2005 Stochastic integration and differential equations Springer Germany.

419. Backhaus K et al 2006 Multivariate analysemethoden. Eine anwendungsorientierte einführung Springer Berlin Heidelberg Germany.

420. Damodaran A 2006 Applied corporate finance. A user’ manual 2nd edition John Wiley & Sons Inc New Jersey USA.

421. Ernst D, Häcker J 2007 Applied international corporate finance Vahlen München Germany.

422. Angrist J D, Pischke J-S 2008 Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion Princeton University Press USA.

423. Vialar Th, Goergen A 2009 Complex and chaotic nonlinear dynamics Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Germany ISBN 978-3-540-85977-2 pp 1 – 752.

424. Weatherall J O 2013 Physics of Wall Street Houfton New York USA.

Selected Research Papers in Macroeconomics, Microeconomics & Nanoeconomics Sciences:

425. Ledenyov V O, Ledenyov D O 2012a Shaping the international financial system in century of globalization Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1206.2022.pdf pp 1 – 20.

426. Ledenyov V O, Ledenyov D O 2012b Designing the new architecture of international financial system in era of great changes by globalization Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1206.2778.pdf pp 1 – 18.

427. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2012a On the new central bank strategy toward monetary and financial instabilities management in finances: econophysical analysis of nonlinear dynamical financial systems Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1211.1897.pdf pp 1 – 8.

428. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2012b On the risk management with application of econophysics analysis in central banks and financial institutions Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1211.4108.pdf pp 1 – 10.

429. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013a On the optimal allocation of assets in investment portfolio with application of modern portfolio management and nonlinear dynamic chaos theories in investment, commercial and central banks Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1301.4881.pdf pp 1 – 34.

430. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013b On the theory of firm in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1206.4426v2.pdf pp 1 – 27.

431. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013c On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1304.4807.pdf pp 1 – 26.

432. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013d To the problem of turbulence in quantitative easing transmission channels and transactions network channels at quantitative easing policy implementation by central banks Cornell University NY USA www.arxiv.org 1305.5656.pdf pp 1 – 40.

433. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013e To the problem of evaluation of market risk of global equity index portfolio in global capital markets MPRA Paper no 47708 Munich University Munich Germany pp 1 – 25 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47708/ .

434. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013f Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets MPRA Paper no 49964 Munich University Munich Germany pp 1 – 52 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49964/ .

435. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013g On the Stratonovich - Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks MPRA Paper no 50235 Munich University Munich Germany pp 1 – 52 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50235/ .

436. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2013h Tracking and replication of hedge fund optimal investment portfolio strategies in global capital markets in presence of nonlinearities MPRA Paper no 51176 Munich University Munich Germany pp