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Are the shocks obtained from SVAR fundamental?

Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi (2015): Are the shocks obtained from SVAR fundamental?


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This paper provides new conditions under which the shocks recovered from the estimates of structural vector autoregressions are fundamental. I prove that the Wold innovations are unpredictable if and only if the model is fundamental. I propose a test based on a generalized spectral density to check the unpredictability of the Wold innovations. The test is applied to study the dynamic effects of government spending on economic activity. I find that standard SVAR models commonly employed in the literature are non-fundamental. Moreover, I formally show that introduction of a narrative variable that measures anticipation restores fundamentalness.

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