Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?

Medel, Carlos (2015): Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market? Published in: Nottingham Economic Review , Vol. 15, (March 2015): pp. 28-30.

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Abstract

To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using an unique measure accounting for these events (2001-12). I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver, influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available.

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