Logo
Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?

Medel, Carlos (2015): Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market? Published in: Nottingham Economic Review , Vol. 15, (March 2015): pp. 28-30.

[thumbnail of MPRA_paper_65298.pdf]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_65298.pdf

Download (197kB) | Preview

Abstract

To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using an unique measure accounting for these events (2001-12). I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver, influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available.

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact us: mpra@ub.uni-muenchen.de

This repository has been built using EPrints software.

MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by Logo of the University Library LMU Munich.