A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014

MAJUNE, Socrates (2015): A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014.

Abstract

The scarcity of studies on export duration in Kenya provide the drive of this study. It looks at the determinants of export duration in Kenya in a discrete-time model. Using HS-6 digit export product-level data between Kenya and 203 partners two major results emerge. First, the median export period in Kenya is one year with only 36% of exports surviving past that period. Secondly, the main determinants of export survival in Kenya are: cost of infrastructure (liner shipping connectivity, air transportation network, cost of export and cost of starting a business), macroeconomic stability (GDP, exchange rates and financial inclusivity), improved governance, labour force, regional membership into East African Community, and membership to AGOA.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Export duration, Discrete time model, AGOA
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C41 - Duration Analysis ; Optimal Timing Strategies; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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