Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A crise financeira e a política econômica: poderia ter sido diferente?

Costa Filho, João Ricardo (2015): A crise financeira e a política econômica: poderia ter sido diferente? Published in: Economia Ensaios , Vol. 30, No. 1 (2015): pp. 67-94.

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The aim of this paper is to analyse whether the economic policy response capability was a relevant factor for minimizing the 2008 financial crisis severity within its first year. The research hypothesis is that countries with a larger space for expansionary policies have registered a less severe crisis, holding everything else constant. The results from cross-country regressions corroborate with the hypothesis for the monetary policy. In relation to the fiscal policy, the sign of the parameters was the opposite of what was expected, signaling that, even countries with good fiscal results can experience limitations to Keynesian stimulus due to debt intolerances. However, the interaction between central govern result and gross debt confirms the research hypothesis, whereas a better management of the fiscal flow and debt stock simultaneously seems to be relevant. Adding an investment grade variable to the specifications highlighted that the crisis was more severe within the developed economies.

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