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Modification of the GE-IO model of the Russian economy with dynamic optimization of macroeconomic policy

Gilmundinov, Vadim and Bozo, Natalia and Melnikov, Vladimir and Petrov, Sergei (2016): Modification of the GE-IO model of the Russian economy with dynamic optimization of macroeconomic policy.

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Abstract

The paper describes recent results connected with extension of the general equilibrium input-output model of Russia with aggregated markets (Gilmundinov et al, 2015). Consideration of economic policy’s influence on a variety of macroeconomic and structural policy goals is an aim of this extension. For this purpose we add into GE-IO model sectoral fixed capital investment’s sub-models and sub-model of dynamic optimization of economic policy. Sectoral sub-models of fixed capital investments are based on the assessments of sectoral production functions with variable degree of capacity use. Sub-model of dynamic optimization of economic policy is based on extension of basic approaches suggested by H. Theil (1954, 1964), J. Tinbergen (1952) and R. Mundell (1962) with dynamic social losses function and accounting of influence of economic policy on sectoral structure of national economy. The suggested modification allows to simulate impact of different variants of economic policy on national economy, aggregated markets and main sectors. That is very helpful for estimation of consequences of various internal and external shocks and development of optimal economic policy and gives more advantages in comparison with standard DSGE or CGE models. The preliminary results of simulations based on suggested model for the Russian economy show considerable dependence of the Russian economy dynamic and structure on economic policy. Optimal economic policy should be hybrid with combining structural policy with sectoral credit policy of Central Bank. According to the basic scenario of simulation with neutral economic policy the Russian GDP in constant prices will decline at 1.8% in 2016 in comparison to 2015 and almost have no changes in 2017 in comparison to 2016. Stimulating economic policy allows to raise growth rates of the Russian economy at 2-3%.

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