Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Cyclical Mackey Glass Model for Oil Bull Seasonal

Melhem, Sadek and terraza, Michel and chikhi, Mohamed (2012): Cyclical Mackey Glass Model for Oil Bull Seasonal. Published in: The Journal of Energy and Development , Vol. 36, No. 2 (2012): pp. 165-178.

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Abstract

In this article, we propose an innovative way for modelling oil bull seasonals taking into account seasonal speculations in oil markets. Since oil prices behave very seasonally during two periods of the year (summer and winter), we propose a modification of Mackey Glass equation by taking into account the rhythm of seasonal frequencies. Using monthly data for WTI oil prices, Seasonal Cyclical Mackey Glass estimates indicate that seasonal interactions between heterogeneous speculators with different expectations may be responsible for pronounced swings in prices in both periods. Moreover, the seasonal frequency π/3 (referring to a period of 6 months) appears to be persistent over time.

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