Инфляция и экономический рост

BLINOV, Sergey (2017): Инфляция и экономический рост.

Abstract

Attempts to establish a link between inflation and economic growth are made quite regularly. The aim of such attempts is not only to determine the impact of inflation on economic growth but also to assess efficiency of the inflation rein-in policy, for example, the policy of inflation targeting. This work reveals the nature of the inter-connection between inflation and economic growth and explains why this inter-connection cannot be sustainable without considering the third parameter, i.e. money supply.

Попытки установить взаимосвязь между инфляцией и экономическим ростом предпринимаются регулярно. Цель этих попыток не только определить влияние инфляции на экономический рост, но и оценить эффективность политики по сдерживанию инфляции, например, политики инфляционного таргетирования. В данной работе раскрывается характер взаимосвязи между инфляцией и экономическим ростом и объясняется, почему эта взаимосвязь не может быть устойчивой без учёта третьего параметра – денежной массы.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Inflation and Economic Growth
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: денежно-кредитная политика; уровень цен; инфляция; дефляция; экономический рост; экономические циклы
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N10 - General, International, or Comparative; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O42 - Monetary Growth Models

References

Абель, Эндрю и Бернанке, Бен (2011) Макроэкономика. 5-е изд. – СПб.: Питер, 2011.

Бернанке, Бен (2004) Деньги, золото и Великая депрессия. federalreserve.gov. Использован перевод, расположенный по ссылке: http://senib.livejournal.com/1118.html.

Блинов, Сергей (2015) «Хороший пример для ЦБ», Expert.ru, 15.07.2015, http://expert.ru/2015/07/15/horoshij-primer-dlya-tsb/

Блинов, Сергей (2015 b). Как удвоить ВВП России. MPRA Paper 11.09.2015, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66583/

Блинов, Сергей (2015 c). «Реальные деньги и экономический рост». MPRA Paper 67256, 16.10.2015. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67256/1/MPRA_paper_67256.pdf

Блинов, Сергей (2016) «Как избежать японской ловушки», Expert.ru, 10.08.2016 http://expert.ru/2016/08/10/kak-izbezhat-yaponskoj-lovushki_-kratkij-urok-monetarizma-dlya-prezidentov-i-premerov-v-treh-kartinkah/

Картаев, Филипп (2017). «Влияние инфляционного таргетирования на динамику ВВП в долгосрочной перспективе: межстрановое исследование». Доклад на научном семинаре ЦМАКП, март 2017, http://www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Presentations/CMASF_SM/mar2017/K-2017v5.pdf

Barro, Robert J. (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth, Working paper 5326, NBER, 1995. http://www.nber.org/papers/w5326

Bruno, M., and W. R. Easterly (1996) “Inflation and Growth: In Search of a Stable Relationship,” Review, 78 (3), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1996, pp. 139–146.

Cozier, B., and J. Selody (1992) “Inflation and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Cross-Country Evidence,” Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 92-06, Bank of Canada, 1992.

Fischer, S., “Inflation and Growth,” (1983) NBER Working Paper No. 1235, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1983.

Kormendi, R. C., and P. G. Meguire (1985) “Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (2), 1985, pp. 141–163.

Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), 1988, pp. 3–42.

McCandless, G. T., and W. E. Weber (1995) “Some Monetary Facts,” Quarterly Review, 19 (3), Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1995, pp. 2–11.

Orphanides, A., and R. Solow (1990) “Money, Inflation and Growth,” in B. M. Friedman and F. H. Hahn, eds. Handbook of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1990.

Stockman, A. C., “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 8 (3), 1981, pp. 387–393.

Tobin, J. (1965) “Money and Economic Growth,” Econometrica, 33 (4), 1965, pp. 671–684