A Normative Balance Dynamic Model of Regional Economy for Study Economic Integrations // Economic integration, competition and cooperation. 6th International Conference . 2007. Opatija - Croatia: University of Rijeka. April 19-20.(CD-Book: Session 6) 15 pp.

Olenev, Nicholas (2007): A Normative Balance Dynamic Model of Regional Economy for Study Economic Integrations // Economic integration, competition and cooperation. 6th International Conference . 2007. Opatija - Croatia: University of Rijeka. April 19-20.(CD-Book: Session 6) 15 pp. Published in: (18 July 2007)

Abstract

A simplest multi-sector dynamic model for regional economy is a normative balance mathematical model, but it contains a lot of unspecified parameters which are not defined directly by the data of economic statistics. Only confidence intervals for the unknown parameters can be computed from the statistical data. This work presents a method for estimation of the model parameters by application of parallel computations on multi-processors systems and by some heuristic algorithms. They determine the unknown parameters of economic model by indirect way, comparing time series for macro indexes calculated by model with statistical time series for these indexes. A new wavelet based measure of similarity was used. The use of the method is illustrated by the parameter estimation of a macroeconomic model of Kirov (Vyatka) Region of Russia for 2000-2006. The each production sector shadow money stock grows due to sale of shadow final product to households and as intermediate product to other sectors. Calibrated model is used for estimation of the Regional Government economic politics in particular for politics of regional economic integration.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Dynamic model; regional economy; economic integration
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis ; Housing ; Infrastructure; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

References

Burnaev E.V., Olenev N.N., Starikov A.S. (2007) Parameter Estimation of a Macroeconomic Model. Proceedings of V Moscow International Conference on Operation Research (ORM2007) dedicated to the outstanding Russian scientist Nikita N. Moiseev 90th birthday. Moscow. 71-73.