Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply

BLINOV, Sergey (2017): Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply.

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Abstract

Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors. This paper proposes a different approach driven by the close linkage between the GDP and the real money supply. By way of an example, forecast scenarios for Russia’s GDP in 2017 are adduced. Options for using the proposed methodology in economic policy (including anti-crisis policy) are suggested

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