Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria

Nassirou, Aïchat (2017): Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria.

Abstract

This study analyzes the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime for a small open economy, Nigeria. On the basis of structural VAR modeling, we introduced the pass-through question in order to respond to the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime for Nigeria, based on the anchoring of the future currency of the Ecowas area that will be chosen. The results show that the Nigerian economy is very vulnerable to real shocks, particularly those related to the exchange rate and the price of oil. Nigeria could only join the union if the anchoring of the new common currency is flexible in relation to an international currency. Otherwise, he has no interest in joining the union. Hence the idea that exchange rate flexibility is an optimal solution for Nigeria because its entry into the union will be a source of gains and not penalized by losses in terms of economic policies. It is then necessary for Nigeria to define the floating amplitude of the exchange rate within this floating regime. In other words, Nigeria should reduce the volatility of its exchange rate vis-à-vis the price of oil in order to be able to cope with external shocks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria
• Language: French
• Keywords: Union économique et monétaire, méthode pass-through, flexibilité optimale du taux de change, chocs macroéconomiques, Nigeria.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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