A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification

Degiannakis, Stavros and Dent, Pamela and Floros, Christos (2014): A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification. Published in: The Manchester School , Vol. 1, No. 82 (2014): pp. 71-102.

Abstract

In financial literature, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) modelling is focused on producing 1-step ahead conditional variance forecasts. The present paper provides a methodological contribution to the multi-step VaR and ES forecasting through a new adaptation of the Monte Carlo simulation approach for forecasting multi-period volatility to a fractionally integrated GARCH framework for leptokurtic and asymmetrically distributed portfolio returns. Accounting for long memory within the conditional variance process with skewed Student-t (skT) conditionally distributed innovations, accurate 95% and 99% VaR and ES forecasts are calculated for multi-period time horizons. The results show that the FIGARCH-skT model has a superior multi-period VaR and ES forecasting performance.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Expected Shortfall, FIGARCH, Forecasting, stock indices, skewed Student-t, Volatility, Long Memory, Value-at-Risk, VaR.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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