Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi

Bilgili, Faik (1999): Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi. Published in: The Papers of IVth National Conference on Econometrics and Statistics held by Marmara University, Belek (1999) 551-571. , Vol. 1, No. 1 (1999): pp. 551-571.

Abstract

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the long term. This paper analyzes if demand sided fiscal policies are efficient or not by observing the Turkish data for the period 1988:4-1999:1, and, the US data for the period 1980:1-1994:2. The paper follows impulse-response (IR) functions through VAR models in which consumption, GDP, tax and debt series are employed. The IR output reveals that the reactions were in the form of mirror images of each other. The paper, hence, conducts (i) the tests for the null of equal variances, (ii) pooled variance test, and, (iii) the test for the null of different variances. The relevant results yield that the mean trends of responses are equal to each other, and, that the difference between the means of the responses is equal to zero. The paper, thusly, may claim that the Turkish and US data confirm the New Classical theorem.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: An evaluation of New Classical arguments on budget policies
• Language: Turkish
• Keywords: New Classical theorem, rational expectations, impulse-response functions, transversality condition, budget policy, the USA, Turkey
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B3 - History of Economic Thought: Individuals; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E13 - Neoclassical; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth

References

Aguiar-Conraria, L. ve P.C. Magalhães, M.J. Joana Soares. "Cycles in politics: wavelet analysis of political time series," Am J Polit Sci, 56 (2), 2012, 500-518.

Aguiar-Conraria, L. ve P.C. Magalhães, M.J. Joana Soares. "The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: a wavelet analysis," Public Choice, 156, 2013, 387-408.

Allsopp, Christopher. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in the J 990's," İç., Tim Jeckinson (ed.), Readings in Macroeconomics, Oxford University Press 1996, 1-28.

Aschauer, David A. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, 75, March, 1985, 117-128.

Barro, Robert J. "The Neoclassical Approach to Fiscal Policy," İç., Barro J. Robert. (ed.), Modern Business Cycle Theory, Harvard University Press, 1989, 178-235.

Barro, Robert J. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" Journal of Political Economy, April 1974, Vol. 82, No. 61, 1095-1117.

Barro, Robert J. "Government Spending, Interest Rates, Prices, and Budget Deficits in the United Kingdom," Journal of Political Economy, October 1987, Vol. 20, No 2 221-247.

Bemheim, Douglas B. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence,” NBER, Macroeconomics Annual, 1987, 263 304.

Bilgili, Faik. "Business Cycle Co-Movements between Renewables Consumption and Industrial Production: A Continuous Wavelet Coherence Approach,” Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, December, 2015, 325–332.

Bilgili, Faik. "Dynamic implications of fiscal policy: Crowding-out or crowding-in?" Munich Personal REPEC Archive, 2003, No. 24111, 1-25. https://www.mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24111/

Bilgili, Faik. "Stationarity and Cointegration Tests: Comparison of Engle-Granger and Johansen Methodologies," Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Erciyes University, No.13 (1998) 131-141. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75967/

Bilgili, Faik. "The Effects of Tax-Cuts and Government Bonds on Aggregate Demand," Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Erciyes University, No. 13, 1998, 123-130. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75606/

Bilgili Faik. "Türkiye'de Bütçe Açıklarının Makro Ekonomik Sonuçları, 2000'li Yıllara Doğru Türk Ekonomisinin Sorunları Sempozyumu," Erciyes Üniversitesi, İİBF, 13-15 Kasım, 1998.

Bilgili, Faik ve Emine Bilgili. "Bütçe Açığının Cari İşlemler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Teori ve Uygulama", İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Yıl 13, 146. sayının eki, Mayıs 1998, 4-16.

Bilgili, Faik. Testing the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem in the Framework of the Permanent Income Hypothesis, Basılmış doktora tezi: UMI, A Bell & Howell Information Company (No: 9732895), MI, USA, 1997. ISBN:9780591424034.

Blinder, Alan ve Deaton Angus. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brooking Papers Economic Activity, no 2, 1985, 465-51 1.

Enders, Walter. Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, 1995.

Engle, R. ve C. Granger. "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” İç., Engle and Granger (eds.), Long Run Economic Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991, 81-113.

Engle, R. ve Yoo Sam. "Forecasting and Testing in Co-integrated Systems," İç., Engle and Granger (eds.), Long Run Economic Relationships. Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991, 237-67.

Evans, Paul. "Are Consumers Ricardian? Evidence for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, 1988, Vol. 96, No. 5, 983-1004.

Feldstein, Martin S. "Government Deficit and Aggregate Demand," Journal of Monetary Economy, 9, January, 1982: 1-20.

Feldstein, Martin. "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security: A Comment,” Journal of Political Economy, 1976, Vol. 84, No: 2, 331-336.

Flavin, Marjorie. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, 89, 1981, 974-1009.

Granger, Clive ve P. Newbold. "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2, 1974, 111-20.

Granger, Clive. "Developments in The Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," İç., Engle and Granger (eds.), Long Run Economic Relationships, Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991,65-81.

Hamilton, James. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime." J. Econom. 45, 1990, 39–70.

Hamilton, James D. Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1994.

Hatemi-J. Abdulnasser. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration." Empirical Economics 35, 2008, 497–505.

Johansen, Sθren. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," İç., Engle and Granger (eds), Long Run Economic Relationships. Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991, 131-152.

Kochin, Levis, A. "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers: Comment, " Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August, 1974, 994-1010.

Kormendi, Roger C. “Government Debt, Government Spending and Private Sector Behavior, "American Economic Review, 73, December, 1983, 994-1010.

Lee, Junsoo ve Strazicich, Mark C. "Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks." Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 2003, 1082-1089.

Lee, Junsoo ve Strazicich, Mark C. "Break point estimation and spurious rejections with endogenous unit root tests." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63, 2001, 535-558.

Lucas, Robert L. "Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique," İç., K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol 1, Amsterdam, North­ Holland, 1976.

Modigliani, Franco ve Sterling, Arlie. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment." American Economic Review, 76, December, 1986, 1168-79.

Poterba, James ve Summers, Lawrence. "Recent US Evidence on Budget Deficits and National Savings," National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 2144, February, 1987.

Seator, John J. ve Mariano Roberto S. "New tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses," Journal of Monetary Economics, March, 1985, 195-215.

Sraffa, Piero. The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, Vol. IV, Pamphlets and Papers, 1815-1823, Cambridge University Press,1962.