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Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama

Bilgili, Faik and Bilgili, Emine (1998): Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama. Published in: İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 146. sayının eki , Vol. 13, No. 146 (May 1998): pp. 4-16.

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In this study, we examine if there is a linkage between the budget deficit (BD) and current account deficit (CAP). Traditional theory asserts that the BD leads to CAD, given that government expenditures are fixed. As disposable income increases due to BD (i.e., due to tax-cuts given that there is no corresponding reduction in government spending), consumers will choose to spend most of the increase in their disposable income. This will cause interest rates to increase via increase (rightward shift) in Investment-Saving (IS) curve. As a result of this, the domestic currency appreciates and net exports decline. Thus, BD causes CAD. The new Classical approach, on the other hand, argues that government debt or tax reductions imply future tax liabilities. This approach assumes that infinitely-lived consumers foresee the future tax liabilities, and, that consumers with rational expectations, therefore, will not increase their consumption level even if their income increases due to government debt or tax-cuts. Thus, there is no link between BAD and CD. In this study, the analyses were carried out by estimating current account equations using time series data for Turkey, Singapore and the USA. The result of this study demonstrates that the budget balance has had no significant impact on current account balance.

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