Identifying Bubbles in Latin American Equity Markets: Phillips-Perron-based Tests and Linkages

Escobari, Diego and Garcia, Sergio and Mellado, Cristhian (2017): Identifying Bubbles in Latin American Equity Markets: Phillips-Perron-based Tests and Linkages. Forthcoming in: Emerging Markets Review

Abstract

The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Price bubbles were identified prior to the establishment of the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: GSADF; Latin America; MILA; Price bubbles; Price exuberance
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F30 - General; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates

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