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صياغة السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية في الجزائر: هل من حاجة إلى الاسترشاد بالنماذج الاقتصادية القياسية؟

Benzarour, Choukri (2014): صياغة السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية في الجزائر: هل من حاجة إلى الاسترشاد بالنماذج الاقتصادية القياسية؟.

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Abstract

This paper reviewed some of the debate among researchers about usefulness of econometric models and doubts surrounding their use. Economists and policy makers frequently uses econometric model to forecasts the effects of choosing one policy or another. Despite the severe criticism made against the standard econometric models, this branch of science has continued to grow. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of macro-econometric models as a tool to assist public policy makers. We provide a case study and analysis of the fundamentals of the general level of prices (GLP) by introducing and estimating an econometric model in accordance with the methodology of co-integration. The contribution of each variable was quantified and the responsibility of the actors other than the bank of Algeria was established. Using out of sample dynamic simulations, the paper concludes with policy implications of several possible scenarios. Key words: econometric models, co-integration, fundamentals of general level of prices, simulation, scenarios and policy implication.

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