Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Is Nigeria's economy progressing or backsliding? Implications from ARIMA models

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Is Nigeria's economy progressing or backsliding? Implications from ARIMA models.

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Abstract

Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in Nigeria from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. My diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Nigerian GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented optimal model is stable and hence reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in Nigeria will tumble over the next decade, as long as the current economic policy stance is not reviewed. Indeed, Nigeria’s economy is backsliding again!!! In order to improve the living standards of an ordinary Nigerian, this study has put forward four-fold policy prescriptions.

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