Understanding inflation trends in Finland: A univariate approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Understanding inflation trends in Finland: A univariate approach.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Finland from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that F is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model is stable and acceptable in predicting Finnish inflation. The results of the study apparently show that F will be hovering around 1% over the next 10 years. Policy makers and the business community in Finland are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; inflation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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