Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Modeling and forecasting Botswana's Growth Domestic Product (GDP) per capita

NYONI, THABANI and MUCHINGAMI, LOVEMORE (2019): Modeling and forecasting Botswana's Growth Domestic Product (GDP) per capita.

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Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in Botswana from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Botswana GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 3) model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is not only stable but also suitable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in Botswana will definitely continue to improve over the next decade. Indeed, Botswana’s success story is a reality. The study offers 4 policy recommendations in an effort to help policy makers in Botswana on how to promote and maintain the much needed better living standards for all Batswana.

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