Futures-based forecasts: How useful are they for oil price volatility forecasting?

Chatziantoniou, Ioannis and Degiannakis, Stavros and Filis, George (2019): Futures-based forecasts: How useful are they for oil price volatility forecasting? Published in: Energy Economics No. 81 (2019): pp. 639-649.

Abstract

Oil price volatility forecasts have recently attracted the attention of many studies in the energy finance field. The literature mainly concentrates its attention on the use of daily data, using GARCH-type models. It is only recently that efforts to use more informative intraday data to forecast oil price realized volatility have been made. Despite all these previous efforts, no study has examined the usefulness of futures-based models for oil price realized volatility forecasting, although the use of such models is extensive for oil price predictions. This study fills this void and shows that futures-based forecasts based on intra-day data provide informative forecasts for horizons that span between 1-day and 66-days ahead. More importantly, these results hold true even during turbulent times for the oil market, such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09 and the oil collapse period of 2014-15.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Brent crude oil, realized volatility, forecasting, futures-based forecasts
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting

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