Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential

Lorde, Troy and Alleyne, Antonio and Hosein, Roger and Yifei, Mu (2019): Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential. Forthcoming in: The International Trade Journal

Abstract

This study assesses the export potential of East Asia for the Caribbean within the framework of a structural gravity model. Export potential of 30% is estimated to be available to the Caribbean within East Asia. Individual markets with the greatest export potential are Singapore, China, and Japan. Various simulations of a free trade agreement between the two regions suggest the existence of even larger potential. The challenge for the Caribbean is that without significant structural changes, the region will be unable to exploit East Asia’s potential. Greater effort at the industry and policy levels will be critical for export expansion.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: export potential, trade complementarity, natural trading partner, non-traditional markets, structural gravity, free trade agreement, Caribbean, East Asia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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