Real Exchange Rate Shocks and Export-Oriented Businesses in Iran: An Empirical Analysis Using NARDL Model

Saadati, Alireza and Honarmandi, Zahra and Zarei, Samira (2020): Real Exchange Rate Shocks and Export-Oriented Businesses in Iran: An Empirical Analysis Using NARDL Model.

Abstract

In this paper, the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of the real exchange rate shocks on different export-oriented businesses, i.e. Petrochemical, Basic Metal, and Mining industries stock indexes, in Tehran Stock Exchange is examined. From the policymakers’ perspective, this idea is theoretically interpreted as a "fear of appreciation" hypothesis that refers to the intervention of central banks in foreign exchange markets to restrict currency appreciation rather than depreciation to defend export competitiveness. To this aim, in addition to the main variables, the monthly time series data of the control variables, i.e. inflation, OPEC oil price, and international sanctions, from 2012:01 to 2020:01 are used. Our findings based on the NARDL approach illustrate that not only have exchange rate shocks significant effects on different stock indexes, but these relationships are asymmetric and nonlinear. Moreover, the results have confirmed the fear of depreciations hypothesis in the export-oriented industries, that means the central bank of Iran tends to pursue the “leaning-against-the-depreciation-wind” policy rather than “leaning-against-the-appreciation-wind” one.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Exchange Rate Shocks, Export-Oriented Industries, fear of depreciation, NARDL Model.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill

References

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