Kolasa, Marcin (2008): Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_10211.pdf Download (566kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper presents a two-country model linking Poland and the euro area and applies it for assessment of heterogeneity across these two regions. Overall, our results can be seen as rather inconclusive about the differences in parameters describing agents' decision-making in Poland and in the euro area. On the contrary, we find strong evidence for heterogeneity in terms of volatility and synchronization of shocks hitting both economies. Our results may be viewed as a step towards estimating the costs of Poland's entry to the European Monetary Union, associated with giving up the monetary autonomy and losing benefits from stabilizing movements of the exchange rate.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General |
Item ID: | 10211 |
Depositing User: | Marcin Kolasa |
Date Deposited: | 28 Aug 2008 09:23 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 16:50 |
References: | Adolfson, M., Laseén, S., Lindé, J., Villani, M. (2005). Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through, Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper No. 179. Altissimo, F., Ehrmann, M., Smets, F. (2006). Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: A summary of the IPN evidence, ECB Occasional Paper Series 46. An, S., Schorfheide, F. (2007). Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models, Econometric Reviews 26(2-4): 113-172. Backus, D.K., Kehoe, P.J., Kydland, F.E. (1992). International Real Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy 100: 745-775. Benigno, G., Thoenissen, C. (2003). Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance, Economic Journal 113(486): C103-C124. Bergin, P. (2003). Putting the `New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test, Journal of International Economics 60: 3-34. Botman, D., Karam, P., Laxton, D., Rose, D. (2007). DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments, IMF Working Paper 07/200. Botman, D., Laxton, D., Muir, D., Romanov, A. (2006). A New-Open-Economy-Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation, IMF Working Paper 06/045. Brooks, S.P., Gelman, A. (1998). General Methods for Monitoring Convergence of Iterative Simulations, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7(4): 434-455. Burstein, A.T., Neves, J.C., Rebelo, S. (2003). Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations, Journal of Monetary Economics 50: 1189-1214. Calvo, G. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework, Journal of Monetary Economics 12: 383-398. Canova, F. (2007). Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research, Princeton University Press. Chari, V.V., Kehoe, P., McGrattan, E. (2002). Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates? Review of Economic Studies 69: 533-563. Chib, S., Greenberg, E. (1995). Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm, American Statistician 49(4): 327-335. Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C. (2005). Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, Journal of Political Economy 113(1): 1-45. Corsetti, G. (2008). A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas, EUI Working Paper No. 2008/12, European University Institute. Corsetti, G., Dedola, L. (2005). A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination, Journal of International Economics 67: 129-155. de Walque, G., Wouters, R. (2004). An Open Economy DSGE Model Linking the Euro Area and the US Economy, paper presented at the Bundesbank conference "SDGE models and the financial sector", Eltville. Erceg, C.J., Henderson, D.W., Levin, A.T. (2000). Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts, Journal of Monetary Economics 46: 281-313. Erceg, C.J., Levin, A. (1996). Structures And The Dynamic Behavior Of The Real Exchange Rate, mimeo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Fernandez-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramirez, J.F. (2004). Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Econometrics 123: 153-187. Gali, J. (1999). Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations? American Economic Review 89(1): 249-271. Gali, J., Lopez-Salido, J.D., Valles, J. (2007). Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption, Journal of the European Economic Association 5(1): 227-270. Gali, J., Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy, Review of Economic Studies 72(3): 707-734. Geweke, J. (1999). Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development and communication, Econometric Reviews 18: 1-126. Grabek, G., Kłos, B., Utzig-Lenarczyk, G. (2007). SOE-PL - model DSGE małej otwartej gospodarki estymowany na danych polskich, Materiały i Studia No. 217, NBP. Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability, Oxford University Press, Oxford UK. Jondeau, E., Sahuc, J-G. (2005). Testing Heterogeneity within the Euro Area Using a Structural Multi-Country Model, EABCN. Kass, R.E., Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayes Factors, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90: 773-795. Lancaster, T. (2004). An Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford UK. Landon-Lane, J. (1998). Bayesian comparison of dynamic macroeconomic models, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Minnesota. Lane, P.R. (2001). The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey, Journal of International Economics 54: 235-266. Laxton, D., Pesenti, P. (2003). Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies, Journal of Monetary Economics 50: 1109-1146. Lubik, T., Schorfheide, F. (2006). A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics, in: Gertler, M., Rogoff, K. [eds.], NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, MIT Press, Cambridge MA. Mundell, R. (1961). A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review 51: 657-664. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. (1995). Exchange rate dynamics redux, Journal of Political Economy 103: 624-660. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. (2000). New directions for stochastic open economy models, Journal of International Economics 50: 117-153. Onatski, A., Williams, N. (2004). Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Pytlarczyk, E. (2005). An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005, 33, Deutsche Bundesbank. Sims, C. (2002). Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models, Computational Economics 20(1-2): 1-20. Rabanal, P. (2007). Inflation Differentials in a Currency Union: A DSGE Perspective, La Caixa Working Paper No. 6. Rabanal, P., Rubio-Ramirez, J.F. (2005). Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach, Journal of Monetary Economics 52: 1151-1166. Ravn, M., Schmitt-Grohe, S., Uribe, M. (2006). Deep Habits, Review of Economic Studies 73(1): 195-218. Schorfheide, F. (2002). Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models, Journal of Applied Econometrics 15: 645-670. Smets, F., Wouters, R. (2003). An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for the Euro Area, Journal of the European Economic Association 1(5): 1123-1175. Tower, E., Willett, T. (1976). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and Exchange-rates Flexibility, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ. Warnock, F.E. (1998). Idiosyncratic tastes in a two-country optimizing model: implications of a standard presumption, International Finance Discussion Papers 631, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/10211 |
Available Versions of this Item
-
Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model. (deposited 14 May 2008 13:08)
- Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model. (deposited 28 Aug 2008 09:23) [Currently Displayed]