IMPACT DES VARIATIONS DU TAUX DE CHANGE REEL SUR L'ECONOMIE MAROCAINE : UNE APPROCHE SVAR A DES RESTRICTIONS DE SIGNES

Azzouzi, asmae and Bousselhamia, Ahmed (2019): IMPACT DES VARIATIONS DU TAUX DE CHANGE REEL SUR L'ECONOMIE MAROCAINE : UNE APPROCHE SVAR A DES RESTRICTIONS DE SIGNES.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic response of a small subset of variables to exchange rate shocks by using a new method based on a set of theory-consistent sign restrictions for the purpose of identifying shocks over time (1995Q1–2019Q1) in the Moroccan economy. It is important to note that the current account presents the so-called “J-curve” phenomenon. Additionally, Morocco entered into a period of deeper and longer recession and higher inflation following the dirham’s depreciation. Following a real depreciation, the output has little effect on improving the current account balance. Our results suggest that the monetary authorities reacted immediately to exchange rate shocks by raising their interest rates to prevent the economy from falling into deflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: IMPACT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE VARIATIONS ON THE MOROCCAN ECONOMY: A SVAR APPROACH TO SIGN RESTRICTIONS
• Language: French
• Keywords: Contractionary, Exchange rate shocks, Vector autoregression, Sign restrictions.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E23 - Production; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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