Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia

Doojav, Gan-Ochir (2021): Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia.

Abstract

This paper examines macroeconomic impacts of Covid-19 and policy issues for recovery in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. Our estimates suggest that China’s GDP and copper price shocks respectively account for three-fifths and one-fifths of the drop in real GDP in 2020Q1. The recovery observed for 2020Q2-2021Q1 is also primarily due to positive shocks to the variables. However, the ‘W-shaped’ recovery is now expected instead of ‘V-shaped’ due to the domestic outbreak of Covid-19, leading to domestic adverse shocks. The paper also provides policy recommendations for sustainable, inclusive, and resilient recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Covid-19, demand and supply shocks, macroeconomic policy, Bayesian analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I15 - Health and Economic Development

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