Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model

Miyake, Yusuke (2022): Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model.

Abstract

In an AI society, ICT is being introduced in all sectors. This trend is expected to significantly impact an aging society with a declining birthrate, which is expected to accelerate in the future. The development of medical care and improvements in diet will promote longer life expectancy, while the spread of online services will promote more efficient labor, and the development of home appliances will greatly reduce the burden of housework and childcare. In this paper, we analyze how the increase in longevity and disposable time of households in an AI society will affect the decline in fertility based on an R&D model.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Endogenous Childcare cost - Endogenous lifetime - Two-sector growth model
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

References

Alvarez-Pelaez MJ, Groth C (2005) Too little or too much R&D? Eur Econ Rev 49:437-456.

Becker, G.S., Lewis, H.G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. J. Polit. Econ. 81 (2), S279–S288.

Blanchard OJ (1985) Debt, deficits and finite horizons. J Polit Econ 93:223-247.

Bloom DE, Canning D, Graham B (2003) Longevity and life-cycle savings. Scand J Econ 105:319-338.

Boserup E (1981) Population and technology. Blackwell, Oxford.

Chakraborty S (2004) Endogenous lifetime and economic growth. J Econ Theory 116:119-137.

Cigno A (1998) Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous. J Popul Econ 11:21-28.

Cigno A, Komura M, Luporini A (2017) Self-enforcing family rules, marriage and the (non)neutrality of public intervention. J Popul Econ 30:805-834.

Cigno A, Werding M (2007) Children and pensions. MIT Press, Cambridge

Cutler DM, Deaton AS, Lleras�Muney A (2006) The determinants of mortality. J Econ Perspect 20:97-120.

Day C (2016) Fertility and economic growth: the role of workforce skill composition and childcare prices.Oxf Econ Pap 68:546–565.

de la Croix D, Licandro O (2013) The child is the man's father: implications for the demographic transition. Econ J 123:236-261.

Diamond P (1965) National debt in a neoclassical growth model. Am Econ Rev 55:1126-1150.

Futagami K, Konishi K (2019) Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth. J Popul Econ 32:591-620.

Galor O (2005) From stagnation to growth: unified growth theory. In: Aghion P, Durlauf S (eds) Handbook of economic growth. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp171-293.

Galor O (2011) Unified growth theory. Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Galor O, Mountford A (2008) Trading population for productivity: theory and evidence. Rev Econ Stud 75:1143-1179.

Galor O, Weil DN (2000) Population, technology, and growth: from the Malthusian regime to the demographic transition. Am Econ Rev 90:806–828.

Gehringer A, Prettner K (2017) Longevity and technological change? Macro econ Dyn. 23: 1471-1503.

Grossman GM, Helpman E (1991) Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press, Cambridge.

Hashimoto K, Tabata K (2016) Demographic change, human capital accumulation, and R&D-based growth. Can J Econ 49:707–737.

Hirazawa M, Yakita A (2017) Labor supply of the elderly, fertility and economic development. J Macroecon 51:75-96.

Jones, Charles I., (1995) R&D-based models of economic growth. J Polit Econ 103:759-784.

___, growth and ideas P. Aghion, S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, vol.1, Elsevier (2005) 1063-1111. (Chapter 16)

Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O (2013) The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. Eur J Popul 29:387-416.

Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O (2014) Does economic advancement 'cause' re-increase infertility? An empirical analysis for OECD countries (1960–2007). Eur J Popul 30:187-221.

Maruyama A, Yamamoto K (2010) Variety expansion and fertility rates. J Popul Econ 23:57-71.

Myrskyla M, Kohler HP, Billari F (2009) Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460:741-743.

Prettner K (2013) Population aging and endogenous economic growth. J Popul Econ 26:811-834.

Prettner K, Trimborn T (2017) Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth. Economica 84:667-681.

Romer, Paul M., (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy,94, 1002–1037.

___,Endogenous technological change. J Polit Econ 1990, 98:71-102.

Strulik H (2004) Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility. J Popul Econ 17:433-453.

Strulik H, Prettner K, Prskawetz A (2013) The past and future of knowledge-based growth. J Econ Growth 18:411-437.

Yaari M (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer. Rev Econ Stud 32:137-150.