Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data

Yucel, Eray M. (2005): Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data.

Abstract

The effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
• Language: English
• Keywords: Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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