Mkaddem, Chamseddine and Mahjoubi, Soufiane (2022): Climate change and its impact on water consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from ARDL approach. Published in:
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_115658.pdf Download (368kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study aims to explore the link between weather and bottled water consumption in Tunisia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) between 1995 and 2020. Ours results show that the precipitation and labor rates in the three sectors have an impact in the short and long term. An increase of 1°C in temperature in the short term leads to an increase in consumption of more than 4 liters of bottled water. However, 1 % more rainfall means a decrease in long-term bottled water consumption of about a quarter of a liter. While in the short term the effect is mixed (both positive and negative). Temperature further increases bottled water consumption in rural areas and among climate-exposed professions.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Climate change and its impact on water consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from ARDL approach |
English Title: | Climate change and its impact on water consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from ARDL approach |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Climate Change, Bottled water, water consumption, ARDL, Tunisia |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation > Q25 - Water Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth |
Item ID: | 115658 |
Depositing User: | Dr Soufiane MAHJOUBI |
Date Deposited: | 14 Dec 2022 01:12 |
Last Modified: | 14 Dec 2022 01:12 |
References: | Aida Nefzi (2012). Evaluation économique de l’impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture : étude théorique et application au cas de la Tunisie. Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]. AgroParisTech. Arbues, F., & Villanua, I. (2006). Potential for pricing policies in water resource management : Estimation of urban residential water demand in Zaragoza, Spain. Urban Studies, 43(13), 2421-2442. Aykut S.C. et Dahan A., (2015). Gouverner le climat ? 20 ans de négocia-tions internationales. Paris, Presses de Sciences Po. Baez, J., Caruso, G., Mueller, V., Niu, C., (2017). Heat exposure and youth migration in Central America and the Caribbean. Am. Econ. Rev. 107 (5), 446–450. Ballantine, P., Ozanne, L., & Bayfield, R. (2019). Why Buy Free ? Exploring Perceptions of Bottled Water Consumption and Its Environmental Consequences. Sustainability, 11(3), 757. Barbieri, P., Pellerin, S., Seufert, V., Smith, 537 L., Ramankutty, N., & Nesme, T. (2021). Global option space for organic agriculture is delimited by nitrogen availability. Nature Food, 2(5), 363-372. Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L., & Strobl, E. (2010). Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa : A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 350–366. doi:10.1162/rest.2010.11212 Beverage Council of Ireland [BCI]. (2009). The glass is half full - The 2009 Republic of Ireland Soft Drinks Market Review. BCI, Dublin, 40 p., available at: www.beveragecouncilofireland.ie Bouchrika, A. et Issaoui, F (2013). A qualitative segmentation of drinking water market in Tunisia : Regional diversification. The Global Journal of Researches in Engineering-F : Electrical and Electronic Engineering (GJRE-F), vol. 13, no 3, p. 24-33. British Soft Drinks Association. (2009). Trusted Innovation - The 2009 UK Soft Drinks Report. BSDA, London, 36 p., available at : www. britishsoftdrinks.com Bsais, Abdeljabbar et Mokaddem, Lamia (2019). L’impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture et la croissance économique de la Tunise. Burke, N. J., Joseph, G., Pasick, R. J., & Barker, J. C. (2009). Theorizing Social Context : Rethinking Behavioral Theory. Health Education & Behavior, 36(5_suppl), 55S–70S. Doi :10.1177/1090198109335338 Carola Grebitus, Rod D. Roscoe, Ellen J. Van Loo, Irfan Kula (2020). Sustainable bottled water : How nudging and Internet Search affect consumers’ choices, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 267, 121930, nISSN 0959-6526. Cavallo, E., Galiani, S., Noy, I., & Pantano, J. (2013). Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5), 1549–1561. doi:10.1162/rest_a_00413 Cohen, A., & Ray, I. (2018). The global risks of increasing reliance on bottled water. Nature Sustainability, 1(7), 327–329. doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0098-9 Dally, M., Butler-Dawson, J., Cruz, 565 A., Krisher, L., Johnson, R.J., Asensio, C., Pilloni, W. D., Asturias, E.J., Newman, L.S., (2020). Longitudinal trends in renal function among first time sugarcane harvesters in Guatemala. PLoS One 15 (3), e0229413. Dally, M., Butler-Dawson, J., Cruz, A., Krisher, L., Johnson, R.J., Asensio, C., Pilloni, W. D., Asturias, E.J., Newman, L.S., (2020). Longitudinal trends in renal function among first time sugarcane harvesters in Guatemala. PLoS One 15 (3), e0229413. Daniel Leigh, Suchanan Tambunlertchai et Federico J Diez, (2018). "Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Working Papers 2018/137, International Monetary Fund. Dąrowska, A., Borcz, A., & Nawrocki, J. (2003). Aldehyde contamination of mineral water stored in PET bottles. Food additives and contaminants, 20(12), 1170-1177. De Lira Azevêdo, Evaldo, et al (2017). "How do people gain access to water resources in the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) in times of climate change ?" Environmental monitoring and assessment 189.8: 1-17. Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2009). Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates. American Economic Review, 99(2), 198–204. doi :10.1257/aer.99.2.198 Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken. (2012). "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth : Evidence from the Last Half Century." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4 (3): 66-95.DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.66 Delpla, I., Jung, A. V., Baures, E., Clement, M., & Thomas, O. (2009). Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production. Environment international, 35(8), 1225-1233. Diallo, T., (2021). Tools and Methods for integrating Health into Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Policies and Strategies, Institut national de santé publique du Québec. Dickey, D.A. et Fuller, 594 W.A. (1979), « Distribution of the estimtors for autoregressive time series with a unit root », in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.74, n° 366, pp. 427-431. Dickey, D.A. et Fuller, W.A. (1981), « Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root », in Econometrica, Vol.49, No. 4, Juillet, pp. 1057-1072. Elliot G., Rothenberg T.J. et Stock J.H. (1996), « Efficient Tests for an autoregressive unit root », in Econometrica, Vol.64, n°4, Juillet, pp. 813-836. Elliott, Joshua ; Deryng, Delphine ; Müller, Christoph ; Frieler, Katja ; Konzmann, Markus ; Gerten, Dieter ; Glotter, Michael ; Flörke, Martina ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Best, Neil ; Eisner, Stephanie ; Fekete, Balázs M. ; Folberth, Christian ; Foster, Ian ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Haddeland, Ingjerd ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Ludwig, Fulco ; Masaki, Yoshimitsu ; Olin, Stefan ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Wisser, Dominik (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3239–3244. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110 Engle, R.F. et Granger C.W.J. (1987), « Cointegration and error correction representation : Estimation and testing », in Econometrica, vol.55, n°2, pp. 251-276. F. Daniel Hidalgo, Suresh Naidu, Simeon Nichter, Neal Richardson (2010). Economic Determinants of Land Invasions. The Review of Economics and Statistics ; 92 (3): 505–523. Feng, S., and Q. Fu (2013). "Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13.19: 10081-10094. García-Trabanino, R., Jarquín, E., Wesseling, C., Johnson, R.J., Gonzalez-Quiroz, M., Weiss, I., Glaser, J., Vindell, J.J., Stockfelt, L., Roncal, C., Harra, T., Barregard, L., (2015). Heat stress, dehydration, and kidney function in sugarcane cutters in El Salvador–a cross-shift study of workers at risk of Mesoamerican nephropathy. Environ. Res. 142, 746–755. GIZ (2011). Amélioration de la chaîne de valeur des produits forestiers non ligneux (PFNL) exploités par les organisations féminines. Le cas des communes des Mbang et Lomié, Départements de la Kadey et du Haut Nyong, Région de l’Est, Cameroun (113 p.). Yaoundé. Gleick, P. H. (2006). Water and terrorism. Water policy, 8(6), 481-503. Hallegatte, S., Fay, M., & Barbier, E. B. 623 (2018). Poverty and climate change : introduction. Environment and Development Economics, 23(03), 217– 233. doi:10.1017/s1355770x18000141 Hertel, T.W. and Rosch, S.D. (2010). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 32, 355-385. Hope, K. R. (2009). Climate change and poverty in Africa. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 16(6), 451– 461. doi:10.1080/13504500903354424 Hsiang, S. M. (2010). Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(35), 15367– 15372. doi:10.1073/pnas.1009510107 Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science, 341(6151), 1235367–1235367. doi:10.1126/science.1235367 Ines Labiadh (2021). Les changements climatiques en Tunisie Réalités et pistes d'adaptation pour le secteur des services publics. Forum Tunisien pour les Droits Economiques et Sociaux Département de la justice environnementale IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change ed B Metz, O R Davidson, P R Bosch, R Dave and L A Meyer (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Daniela Jacob; Lars Bärring; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Manuel de Castro; Michel Déqué; Filippo Giorgi; Stefan Hagemann; Martin Hirschi; Richard Jones; Erik Kjellström; Geert Lenderink; Burkhardt Rockel; Enrique Sánchez; Christoph Schär; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Samuel Somot; Aad van Ulden; Bart van den Hurk (2007). An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. , 81(1 Supplement), 31–52. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4 Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990), « Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money », in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.52, n°2, pp. 169-210 Kassenga, G. R. (2007). The health-652 related microbiological quality of bottled drinking water sold in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Journal of water and health, 5(1), 179-185. Keele, Luke, and Suzanna DeBoef (2008). "Taking time seriously : dynamic regression." American Journal of Political Science 52.1 : 184-200. Khemiri, K.; Jebari, S.; Mahdhi, N.; Saidi, I.; Berndtsson, R.; Bacha, S (2022). Drivers of Long-Term Land-Use Pressure in the Merguellil Wadi, Tunisia, Using DPSIR Approach and Remote Sensing. Knutson T Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Chang- Hoi Ho, James Kossin, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Masaki Satoh, Masato Sugi, Kevin Walsh, et Liguang Wu (2020). Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment : Part II : projected response to anthropogenic warming. BAMS 101(3) : E303–E322 Kwiatkowski D. et al. (1992), « Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against an Alternative of a Unit Root : How Sure Are We that Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root ? », in Journal of Econometrics, 54:159-78. Leichenko, R., & Silva, J. A. (2014). Climate change and poverty : vulnerability, impacts, and alleviation strategies. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Climate Change, 5(4), 539–556. doi:10.1002/wcc.287 Li, J., Chen, Y.D., Gan, T.Y., Lau, N.-C., (2018). Elevated increases in human perceived temperature under climate warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 43–47. Li, J., Chen, Y.D., Gan, T.Y., Lau, N.-C., (2018). Elevated increases in human perceived temperature under climate warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 43–47. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2. Martins, Rita, and Adelino Fortunato (2007). "Residential water demand under block rates–a Portuguese case study." Water policy 9.2 : 217-230. Mason, S. A., Welch, V. G., & Neratko, J. (2018). Synthetic Polymer Contamination in Bottled Water. Frontiers in Chemistry, 6. doi:10.3389/fchem.2018.00407 Mirasgedis, S., Georgopoulou, E., 681 Sarafidis, Y., Papagiannaki, K., & Lalas, D. P. (2013). The Impact of Climate Change on the Pattern of Demand for Bottled Water and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. Business Strategy and the Environment, 23(4), 272–288. doi:10.1002/bse.1782 Mirasgedis, S., Georgopoulou, E., Sarafidis, Y., Papagiannaki, K., & Lalas, D. P. (2014). The Impact of Climate Change on the Pattern of Demand for Bottled Water and Non‐ Alcoholic Beverages. Business Strategy and the Environment, 23(4), 272-288. Murray KB, Finn A, Leszczyc P, Di Muro F. (2010). The Effect of weather on consumer spending. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 17: 512–520 Nordhaus, William, D. (2006). "After Kyoto: Alternative Mechanisms to Control Global Warming." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 31-34. OECD (2015). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In: Environment at a Glance 2015. OECD Indicators, Paris Retrieved from. Path (2009). Understanding Consumers and the Market for Household Water Treatment Products in Cambodia. Program for Appropriate Technology in Health, Phnom Penh. Path (2011). Accelerating Trial and Adoption of POU HWTS among the Middle to Low Income Population. Program for Appropriate Technology in Health, Phnom Penh. Perron, P. (1989), « The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis », in Econometrica. 57(6) : pp. 1361-1401. Perron, P. (1997), « Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables », in Journal of Econometrics. 80(2):355-85. Pesaran M.H., Shin Y. et Smith R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. in Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, n°3, pp. 289-326. Pesaran, M.H. et Pesaran, B. (1997), « Working with microfit 4.0 : Interactive econometric analysis », Oxford, Oxford University Press. Pesaran, M.H. et Shin, Y. (1998), « An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis », Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century : The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Vol.31, pp. 371-413 Phillips Perron C. (1987), « Time Series Regression with a Unit Root », in Econometrica, vol.55, No.2, March, pp. 277-301 Qiu, R.; Liu, C.; Li, F.; Wang, Z.; Yang, Z.; Cui, N (2019). An investigation on possible effect of leaching fractions physiological responses of hot pepper plants to irrigation water salinity. BMC Plant Biology, v.19, p.1-10. Raddatz, Claudio E. (2009). The Wrath of God: Macroeconomic Costs of Natural Disasters. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5039 Ranson, M. (2014). Crime, weather, and climate change. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67(3), 274–302. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008 Riedel, T. (2019). Temperature-associated changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology, 572, 206-212. Skoufias, Emmanuel and Rabassa, Mariano and Olivieri, Sergio (2011). The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change : A Review of the Evidence. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5622 Stern, Nicholas and Fankhauser, Samuel (2016). Climate change, development, poverty and economics. In : The state of economics, the state of the world. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Hertel, TW and Rosch, SD (2010). Climate change, agriculture, and poverty. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 32(3), 355–385. UNFCCC (2018). NAZCA platform. http://climateaction.unfccc.int/. Accessed January 16, 2018. Wagoner, R.S., Lopez-G ´ alvez, ´ N.I., de Zapien, J.G., Griffin, S.C., Canales, R.A., Beamer, P. I., (2020). An occupational heat stress and hydration assessment of agricultural Workers in North Mexico. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17 (6), 2102. Ward LA, Cain OL, Mullally RA, Holliday 738 KS, Wernham AGH, Baillie PD, Greenfield SM (2009). Health beliefs about bottled water: a qualitative study. BMC Public Health 9:196 Wesseling, C., Aragon, ´ A., Gonz´ alez, M., Weiss, I., Glaser, J., Rivard, C.J., RoncalJimenez, C., Correa-Rotter, R., Johnson, Rj, (2016). Heat stress, hydration and uric acid: a cross-sectional study in workers of three occupations in a hotspot of Mesoamerican nephropathy in Nicaragua. BMJ Open 6 (12), e011034. Geruso, M., Spears, D., (2018). Heat, humidity and infant mortality in the developing world. NBER working paper no. 24870. Wesseling, C., Aragon, ´ A., Gonz´ alez, M., Weiss, I., Glaser, J., Rivard, C.J., RoncalJimenez, C., Correa-Rotter, R., Johnson, Rj, (2016). Heat stress, hydration and uric acid : a cross-sectional study in workers of three occupations in a hotspot of Mesoamerican nephropathy in Nicaragua. BMJ Open 6 (12), e011034. https://doi. org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011034. Zapata, O. (2015). More water please, It’s getting hot ! The effect of climate on residential water demand. J. Water Econ. Policy. 1 (3), 1550007. Zapata, O. (2021). The relationship between climate conditions and consumption of bottled water : A potential link between climate change and plastic pollution. Ecological Economics, 187, 107090. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.10709 Zivot, E. et Andrews, D. (1992), « Further evidence of great crash, the oil price shock and unit root hypothesis », in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol.10, pp. 251-270. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/115658 |