Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19

Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain (2020): Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19. Forthcoming in:

Abstract

The objective of this reflection is to assess the effects of the current crisis on the Cameroonian economy faced with five shocks : (i) an epidemiological shock, (ii) a supply shock (iii) an internal demand shock, (iv) an oil shock, (v) a foreign demand shock. The joint occurrence of these shocks could cost 6 % of GDP in 2020, with a doubling of the budget deficit and private investment which will not recover to its pre-crisis level before the end of 2021. In order to mitigate the effects In view of this recession, it is important for the government, in order to maintain demand at a certain level, to support companies, particularly industrial ones, so that they can maintain a certain level of employment and withstand the crisis. It will require an increase in public debt, the burden of which can be reduced by a purchase of government securities by the central bank. This is the prerequisite for a major economic rebound in 2021-2022. For the latter to materialize, the phenomenon of credit rationing (amplified in period of crisis) could be mitigated by adopting a dynamic bank’s provisioning method for non performing loans and by the effective application of the countercyclical capital buffer.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Thoughts about the costs of the current crisis in the Cameroonian economy linked to COVID-19
• Language: French
• Keywords: covid-19, DSGE model, pandemic economic effects, cameroon, supply shock, keynesian shock
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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