Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation

Arnold, Rob (2023): Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation.

Abstract

Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation (UC2) is an approach and set of tools that address several issues that are common in risk estimation techniques. Deployed between analysis and modeling, UC2 brings uniformity and interoperability that improve risk model results and improve stakeholder engagement. Its unique features correctly capture confidence and certainty and improve interoperability between data-driven and expert-derived risk estimates and the models that consume them. In turn, UC2 increases uniformity, transparency, and stakeholder engagement, without ripping and replacing existing risk models or analytical workflows.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Risk modeling; Risk analysis; Risk estimation; Scales; Confidence; Certainty; Accuracy and Precision; Quantitative; Qualitative; Objective; Subjective; Binomial probability; Probability distribution
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness

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