Coûts de la Covid-19, Tropicalisation de modèle épidémiologique et Arbitrage santé-économie en Afrique

KOUAKOU, Thiédjé Gaudens-Omer (2025): Coûts de la Covid-19, Tropicalisation de modèle épidémiologique et Arbitrage santé-économie en Afrique.

Abstract

We model the optimal behavior of the public decision-maker of an African country plagued by covid-19, with little fiscal room for maneuver and facing a health-economy dilemma. The model shows that a substantial part of the economic costs of covid-19 is due to a deficit in tropicalization of the epidemiological model. A comparative static analysis of the optimal equilibrium shows that the public decision-maker can reduce the economic costs of covid-19 in two ways: either he relaxes the barrier measures at the cost of an increase in human costs (health-economy trade-off); or he tropicalizes the epidemiological model as best he can, without increasing health costs (no health-economy trade-off). This last strategy is an alternative that can allow African countries to face a pandemic crisis economically, without sacrificing health while minimizing the systematic recourse to debt and aid.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Costs of Covid-19, Tropicalization of the epidemiological model and Health-economic trade-off in Africa
• Language: French
• Keywords: arbitrage santé-économie, covid-19, modèle épidémiologique, Afrique
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H51 - Government Expenditures and Health; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

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