La desconfiguración del orden mundial y los aranceles: Efectos sobre la economía de Galicia.

González Laxe, Fernando and Armesto Pina, José Francisco and Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio (2025): La desconfiguración del orden mundial y los aranceles: Efectos sobre la economía de Galicia. Published in: Documentos. Foro Economico de Galiica , Vol. 43, No. 2025 (16 May 2025): pp. 1-24.

Abstract

On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election and, in February 2025, announced new tariffs, defending them as a way to make America "great and rich" again. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that increase prices, affect consumers and businesses, and cause negative effects such as inflation, reduced investment, and greater uncertainty.

Spain is one of the European economies with the least direct exposure to the United States, although it is not free from risk; in 2024, it exported goods worth €18.379 billion, compared to Germany's €161 billion. In Galicia, the external sector is highly concentrated geographically and by industry. Its exports to the U.S. amounted to €2.093 billion, 4.5% of Spain's total, below Galicia’s overall weight in national foreign trade (6.6%).

The impact of additional tariffs on Galician exports is relatively small. Specifically, if tariffs increased by 20%, Galicia’s economy would see a 0.20% drop in GDP, plus an additional 0.09% due to the effect on supplies to European exporters. The total impact would be a 0.29% decrease in GDP—lower than the expected impact on the Spanish economy (0.31%) and that of the Basque Country (0.66%) and Catalonia (0.36%).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The deconfiguration of the world order and tariffs: Effects on the Galician economy.
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Foreign trade; Galicia; United States; Tariffs.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F10 - General; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other

References

Amiti, M.; Redding, S.J., Weinstein, D.E. (2019). “The Impacts of 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33, 4.

Foro Económico. Barómetro exportador de Galicia (BAEXGA). https://foroeconomicodegalicia.es/baexga.html

FUNCAS (2025). El impacto en la economía española de los aranceles decretados por EEUU. Nota de Dirección de Coyuntura y Análisis Internacional, de abril de 2025 (disponible en https://www.funcas.es/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Nota-aranceles.pdf ).

González Laxe. F. (coord.), Armesto Pina, J.F., Sanchez-Fernandez, P., Lago Peñas, S. (2025). Informe de Conxuntura Socioeconómica I/2025. Foro Económico de Galicia.