Asymmetric impact of different types of road transport on economic growth in the Visegrad Group countries: An empirical analysis of the NARDL framework

Suproń, Błażej (2023): Asymmetric impact of different types of road transport on economic growth in the Visegrad Group countries: An empirical analysis of the NARDL framework. Published in: Contemporary Economy , Vol. 2, No. 17 (10 December 2023): pp. 29-49.

Abstract

The contemporary economy depends on an effective transportation system, and road haulage assumes a crucial function in fostering dynamic economic growth and commerce. This article aims to investigate the influence of various road transportation modes on economic growth in the Visegrad countries. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was employed to scrutinize the asymmetrical impact of various transport modes on GDP. We used quarterly data from 2004–2021 for the Visegrad countries. In addition, a Toda-Yamamoto test was performed to establish causality between variables. The study found evidence of differing impacts of transport modes on economic growth in the examined countries. Specifically, international, and cross-trade transport had a balanced effect on GDP growth, whereas cabotage and domestic transport had an imbalanced impact. The Toda-Yamamoto method's causality analysis results demonstrate bidirectional causality between freight work and GDP in both international and domestic transportation for the Czech Republic, Poland, and Poland's cross-trade. On the other hand, unidirectional causality was established for cross-trade in Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Based on the conducted estimation, it was deduced that the impact of specific transport modes on economic growth is uneven and reliant on both the transport mode and the country. The significant results obtained hold critical implications for economic policy, enabling the adaptation of strategies and regulations to foster growth based on variances in the influence of road transportation on the economy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: road transport; economic growth; NARDL; asymmetric effects; Toda-Yamamoto; causality
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R40 - General

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