Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short-and long-term effects

Jena, Pratap Kumar and Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan and Mohapatra, Souryabrata and Mishra, Ashok (2025): Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short-and long-term effects. Published in: Bio-based and Applied Economics

Abstract

Weather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, farmland use and intensity in Odisha, India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a panel autoregressive distributive lag model, we assess long-and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative yield elasticity to rainfall deviation, ranging from-0.16 for wheat to-0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, elasticity is positive for some pulses (green gram, urad) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Rainfall deviation and maximum temperature adversely affect the rate and intensity of farmland use but enhance crop diversification in both the short and long term.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate change; Crop yield response; Land use intensity; Panel ARDL model; Odisha, India
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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