Estimation of the Unemployment Rate in Moldova: A Comparison of ARIMA and Machine Learning Models Including COVID-19 Pandemic Periods

Vîntu, Denis (2025): Estimation of the Unemployment Rate in Moldova: A Comparison of ARIMA and Machine Learning Models Including COVID-19 Pandemic Periods.

Abstract

This study investigates the estimation of the unemployment rate in the Republic of Moldova, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two forecasting approaches are compared: the traditional ARIMA model and several machine learning models. The performance of these models is evaluated based on prediction accuracy metrics over pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. Results indicate that while ARIMA captures general trends effectively, machine learning models can better adapt to sudden shocks, such as those induced by the pandemic.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Simultaneous equations model; Labor market equilibrium; Unemployment rate determination; Wage-setting equation; Price-setting equation; Beveridge curve; Job matching function; Phillips curve; Structural unemployment; Natural rate of unemployment; Labor supply and demand; Endogenous unemployment; Disequilibrium model; Employment dynamics; Wage-unemployment relationship; Aggregate labor market model; Multivariate system estimation; Identification problem; Reduced form equations; Equilibrium unemployment rate
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C31 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions ; Social Interaction Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J65 - Unemployment Insurance ; Severance Pay ; Plant Closings; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J68 - Public Policy

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