Flughafen- und Zugangsverkehrsmittelwahl in Deutschland - Ein verallgemeinerter Nested Logit-Ansatz

Gelhausen, Marc Christopher (2006): Flughafen- und Zugangsverkehrsmittelwahl in Deutschland - Ein verallgemeinerter Nested Logit-Ansatz. Published in: Proceedings of Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2006 (2006): pp. 529-538.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present an airport and access mode choice model based on discrete choice theory. In particular, a nested logit-model approach is employed and alternatives are based on so-called "airport categories", which were formed from a demand-oriented point of view. For this purpose a cluster technique called Kohonen’s Self Organizing Maps was used. Therefore, the model is applicable to any number of specific airports and combinations of airports and access modes permitting an evaluation of future scenarios not existing today with regard to airports and accessibility. Therefore, this approach is entiteled as “generalized nested logit model”. Market segments are classified regarding destination type and travel purpose. Destination types are divided into domestic, European and intercontinental. With respect to travel purposes private and business trips are distinguished. The market segment of private air travel to European destinations is further subdivided into short stay and holiday trips.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: German
• Keywords: Airport and access mode choice, discrete choice models, nested logit-models
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion ; Travel Time ; Safety and Accidents ; Transportation Noise

References

ADAC (2003). ADAC Fahrzeugtechnik Sonderdruck – ADAC Autokosten 2003.

Avis (2003). Mietwagenpreise 2003. http://www.avis.de.

Ben-Akiva, M.; Lerman, S. (1985). Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Applications to Travel Demand. Cambridge.

Berster, P.; Focke, H.; Pabst, H.; Wilken, D. (2005). Gemeinsame Auswertung der ADV-Fluggastbefragung 2003. Unveröffentlicht, Köln 2005.

Deutsche Flughäfen (2003a). Parkpreise an 22 ausge-suchten deutschen Flughäfen. Verschiedene Orte.

Deutsche Flughäfen (2003b). Lagepläne von 22 aus-gesuchten deutschen Flughäfen. Verschiedene Orte.

Die Bahn (2003a). Elektronischer Fahrplan Regional-verbindungen.

Die Bahn (2003b). DB ReiseService.

Domencich, T. A.; McFadden, D. (1975). Urban Travel Demand – A Behavioral Analysis. New York.

Gelhausen, M. (2006). Airport and Access Mode Choice in Germany: A Generalized Neural Logit Model Approach. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference in Strasbourg, France.

Gelhausen, M.; Wilken, D. (2006). Airport and Access Mode Choice – A Generalized Nested Logit Model Ap-proach. Paper presented at the 10th Air Transport Re-search Society Conference 2006 in Nagoya, Japan.

Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey.

Grunewald, E.; Berster, P.; Claßen, A.; Hepting, M.; Papst, H.; Pak, H.; Wilken, D. (2005). Luftverkehrsbe-richt 2005 – Daten und Kommentierungen des deut-schen und weltweiten Luftverkehrs. Köln.

Hensher, D. A.; Greene, W. H. (2002). Specification and Estimation of the Nested Logit Model: Alternative Normalisations. Transportation Research B Vol. 36 (2002). S. 1 – 17.

INVERMO (2005). Sonderauswertung zum Projekt IN-VERMO, Institut für Verkehrswesen, Universität Karls-ruhe. Karlsruhe.

Kohonen, T. (2001). Self-Organizing Maps. Berlin.

Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (2003). Statistische Mitteilungen – Band 2: Kraftfahrzeuge. Flensburg.

Maier, G.; Weiss, P. (1990). Modelle diskreter Ent-scheidungen – Theorie und Anwendung in den Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Wien.

Manski, C. F. (1977). The Structure of Random Utility Models. Theory and Decision 8 (1977). S. 229-254.

McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior. In: Zarembka, P.:Frontiers in Econometrics. S. 105 – 142. New York.

McFadden, D. (1978). Modelling the Choice of Resi-dental Location. In: Karlqvist, A.; Lundqvist, L.; Snickars, F.; Weibull, J.: Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models. S. 75 – 96. Amsterdam.

Microsoft (2003). Microsoft AutoRoute 2003.

Official Airline Guide (OAG) (2003). Market Analysis. Dunstable.

Ortuzar, J. de D.; Willumsen, L. G. (2001). Modelling Transport. London.

Pels, E.; Nijkamp, P. Rietveld, P. (2003). Access to and Competition between Airports: A Case Study for the San Francisco Bay Area. Transportation Research A Vol. 37 (2003). S. 71 – 83.

Private Busdienste (2003). Preislisten privater Bus-dienste. Verschiedene Orte.

Sixt (2003). Mietwagenpreise 2003. http://www.e-sixt.de.

Statistisches Bundesamt (2003). Bevölkerungsstatisti-ken des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Wiesbaden.

Taxi (2003). Taxi-Tarifumfrage. http://www.ventil-taximagazin.com.

Train, K. E. (2003). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge.

Urbatzka, E.; Focke, H.; Stader, A.; Wilken, D. (2000). Szenarien des Luftverkehrs Deutschlands im Jahr 2010 vor dem Hintergrund kapazitätsbeengter Flugha-feninfrastruktur. Köln.

Verkehrsverbünde (2003). Fahr- und Tarifpläne 2003. Verschiedene Orte.

Wilken, D.; Berster, P.; Gelhausen, M. (2005). Airport Choice in Germany – New Empirical Evidence of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003. Paper presented at the 9th Air Transport Research Society Conference 2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.