Regime-switching models for electricity spot prices: Introducing heteroskedastic base regime dynamics and shifted spike distributions

Janczura, Joanna and Weron, Rafal (2009): Regime-switching models for electricity spot prices: Introducing heteroskedastic base regime dynamics and shifted spike distributions. Published in: IEEE Conference Proceedings (2009)

Abstract

We calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models to mean daily spot prices from the EEX market. Our empirical study shows that (i) models with shifted spike regime distributions lead to more realistic models of electricity spot prices and that (ii) introducing heteroskedasticity in the base regime leads to better spike identification and goodness-of-fit than in MRS models with the standard mean-reverting, constant volatility dynamics.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: regime-switching, heteroskedasticity, electricity spot price
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting; L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L94 - Electric Utilities; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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