Levent, Korap (2009): The search for co-integration between money, prices and income: low frequency evidence from the Turkish economy. Published in: panoeconomicus , Vol. LVI, No. 1 (2009): pp. 55-72.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_19557.pdf Download (160kB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this paper, we aim to test the empirical validity of the QTM relationship for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous time series estimation techniques, our estimation results reveal that stationarity characteristics of the velocities of currency in circulation and the broad money aggregate in the economy cannot be rejected through a quantity theoretical co-integrating long-term variable space. We find that there exists an about one-to-one proportionality between money and prices and money and real income, and that the exogeneity of money cannot be rejected for the currency in circulation in the economy. But, the exception here comes from the broad monetary aggregate used in the QTM equation such that money seems to be endogenous as for the long-term variable space.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The search for co-integration between money, prices and income: low frequency evidence from the Turkish economy |
English Title: | The search for co-integration between money, prices and income: low frequency evidence from the Turkish economy |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Money ; Prices ; Income ; Quantity Theory of Money ; Co-integration ; Long-span Data ; Turkish Data ; |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination |
Item ID: | 19557 |
Depositing User: | Levent Korap |
Date Deposited: | 25 Dec 2009 08:42 |
Last Modified: | 03 Oct 2019 16:46 |
References: | Aslan, O. and L. Korap. 2007. “Testing Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish Economy.” Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 1(2): 93-109. Bullard, J. 1999. “Testing Long-Run Monetary Neutrality Propositions: Lessons from the Recent Research.” FRB of St. Louis Review, November/December, 57-77. Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Roots.” Econometrica, 49: 1057-072. Dwyer, G.P. and R.W. Hafer. 1999. “Are Money Growth and Inflation Still Related?.” FRB of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter, 32-43. Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger. 1987. “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing.” Econometrica, 55: 251-76. Fisher, M.E. and J.J. Seater. 1993. “Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework.” American Economic Review, June, 83: 402-15. Friedman, M. 1956. “The Quantity Theory of Money – A Restatement.” In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. M. Friedman, 3-21. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Gonzalo, J. 1994. “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equilibrium Relationships.” Journal of Econometrics, 60: 203-33. Granger, C.W.J. and P. Newbold. 1974. “Spurious Regressions in Economic.” Journal of Econometrics, 2(2): 111-20. Grauwe, P.D. and M. Polan. 2005. “Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?.” Scand. J. of Economics, 107(2): 239-59. Harris, R.I.D and Sollis, R. 2003. Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. Wiley. Herwartz, H. and H.-E. Reimers. 2006. “Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence.” German Economic Review, 7: 65-86. Hume, D. 1970. “Of Money.” In Writings on Economics, ed. E. Rotwein, University of Wisconsin Press. Reprinted in selected essays from Political Discourses, 1752. Johansen, S. 1988. “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-54. Johansen, S. 1992. “Testing for Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in the U.K. Money Demand Data.” Journal of Policy Modeling, 14: 313-34. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius. 1990. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210. Johansen, S., Mosconi, R. and Nielsen, B. 2000. “Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend.” Econometrics Journal, 3: 216-49. Karfakis, C. 2002. “Testing the Quantity Theory of Money in Greece.” Applied Economics, 34: 583-87. Karfakis, C. 2004. “Testing the Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: Reply to Ozmen.” Applied Economics Letters, 11: 541-43. King, R.G. and M.W. Watson. 1997. “Testing Long-Run Neutrality.” FRB of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 83(3): 69-101. Lucas, R.E., Jr. 1980. “Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money.” American Economic Review, 70(5): 1005-014. MacKinnon, J.G. (1996). “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601-18. Mishkin, F.S. 1997. The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets. 5. Ed., Addison-Wesley. Osterwald-Lenum, M. 1992. “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54: 461-72. Ozmen, E. 2003. “Testing the Quantity Theory of Money in Greece.” Applied Economics Letters, 10: 971-74. Perron, P. 1989. “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis.” Econometrica, 57: 1361-401. Pigou, A.C. 1917. “The Value of Money.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 32: 38-65. Said, S.E. ve Dickey, D.A. 1984. “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order.” Biometrika, 71: 599-607. Serletis, A. and Z. Koustas. 1998. “International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 30(1): 1-25. Serletis, A. and D. Krause. 1996. “Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Low-Frequency International Data.” Economics Letters, 50: 323-27. Turkish Statistical Institute. 2008. Statistical Indicators 1923-2007. Ankara, Turkey. Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. 1992. “Further Evidence of Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10: 251-70. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/19557 |