Surveying HIV/AIDS Incidence in Sudan

Mohamed, Issam A.W. (2011): Surveying HIV/AIDS Incidence in Sudan.

Abstract

The present paper introduces results of an analysis conducted on data collected from Khartoum state for the yea 2009. It aims to apply statistical models for the HIV/AIDS data in Khartoum state centers of testing blood and counseling. AIDS is recognized as an emerging disease only in the early 1980s, AIDS has rapidly established itself throughout the world, and is likely to endure and persist well into the 21s century. AIDS has evolved from a mysterious illness to a global pandemic which has infected tens of millions less than 20 years. The importance of the study is to emphasize that the disease exists even under the special conditions of the country and its status. The study constructs three main hypotheses that non-linear models fit the HIV/AIDS data well especially binary logistic regression. Moreover, it is assumed that demographic variables affect the HIV/AIDS incidence in Khartoum state. It is also assumed that incidences of HIV/AIDS are increasing as manifested among volunteers in the three centers Khartoum, Khartoum North, and Omdurman. The main objective of the paper was to apply statistical models for HIV/AIDS in Khartoum state so as to obtain a good analysis, beside other sub objectives. Data were from secondary sources and volunteers centers for blood testing and counseling inside Omdurman, Khartoum, and Khartoum North teaching hospitals. Also data were collected through questionnaires designed to get all the information registered inside the three centers. The main idea of analysis was to apply and identify statistical model that related to AIDS by using statistical packages to construct the models depends on the collected data about HIV/AIDS of Khartoum state. The focus was on binary logistic regression, because it’s suitable to the data collected from the three centers inside the three hospitals in Khartoum. Estimated coefficients and statistical tests were conducted to distinguish between the variables that related to HIV/AIDS incidence and spread through people in the three cities Khartoum, Khartoum North, and Omdurman. It is concluded that there is no effect of education level on n HIV/AIDS infection for the data collected from Omdurman. However, there is dependency between HIV/AIDS incidence and occupation of volunteers. So the job of individuals affects the HIV/AIDS incidence inside Omdurman area. Also there is an association between HIV/AIDS incidence and social status of individuals. High numbers of positive HIV/AIDS in Omdurman center are among married people.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Sudan, HIV, AIDS, Incidence, Prevalence,Khartoum, Refugees, Economic Activities
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I12 - Health Behavior; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; K - Law and Economics > K3 - Other Substantive Areas of Law > K32 - Environmental, Health, and Safety Law; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H51 - Government Expenditures and Health; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H75 - State and Local Government: Health ; Education ; Welfare ; Public Pensions

References

1. Akord, A. and Mohamed, I. (2006) Qualitative socioeconomic research on female sex workers and their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS in Khartoum states.

2. Center for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) (2001) HIV and AIDS in United States..

3. Center for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) 2002 HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report.

4. Jacob Adetunji (2000) Trends in under-five mortality rates and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.

5. Jerald F. Lawless (1982) Statistical models and methods for lifetime data.

6. John Whitehead, An introduction to logistic regression

7. Joshua and Christopher (2001) Modeling HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa using seroprevalence data from antenatal clinics.

8. Omyma Sayeed Ahmed and Ahmed Mukhtar (2006) Women tea-sellers in Khartoum and HIV/AIDS surviving against the odds,

9. Markus Haacker. (2002) Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS.

10. Manzoul A. Assal, M. (2006) HIV Prevalence, Knowledge, Attitude, Practices, and Risk Factors among Prisoners in Khartoum state. Ministry of Health Report.

11. Mohomed Salih and Salah Hussien (2006) HIV Prevalence, Knowledge, Attitude, practices, and risk factors among truck drivers in Khartoum state.

12. Mohomed Salih Mahfouz (2007) Modeling the impact of HIV/AIDS Epidemic Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa with reference to Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Sudan (1985-2003) ,.

13. Mohamed, I. (2005) Baseline study on knowledge, attitudes and practices on sexual Behaviors and HIV/AIDS prevention among young people in selected states in Sudan.

14. McClell (2006) A Comparison of Genital shedding of HIV-1 and Sexual Risk Behavior among Kenyan women based on eligibility for initiation of HAART according to WHO guidelines Acquire Immune Syndrome.

15. Ropert, I. and Remis, S. (2003) Report on HIV/AIDS in Ontario. University of Toronto.

16. Surveillance Report (2003) HIV and AIDS in Canada.

17. SNAP. (2002) Situation Analysis Behavioral and Epidemiological Surveys response analysis.

18. UNIADS. (2002) Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic.

19. UNIADS. (2004) Report on the global AIDS epidemic, Geneva.

20. UNAIDS October (2004) HIV/AIDS statistics updates.

21. UNAIDS/WHO (May 2004) HIV/AIDS EPI updates.

22. UNAIDS and WHO (2007) AIDS Epidemic update 2007. Global summary of the AIDS Epidemic.

23. WHO (1994) The HIV/AIDS epidemic, overview. Available at www.who.org.

24. Park, K. (2000) Text Book of Preventive and Social Medicine, (India) .

25. Sharif Abu Fatima (2003) Clinical manifestations of AIDS its correlation to the CD4-lymphocyte count in adults Sudanese presenting to Khartoum Teaching Hospital.