A causal investigation of aggregate output fluctuations in India

Gopalan, Sasidaran (2006): A causal investigation of aggregate output fluctuations in India. Published in: Economic and Political Weekly , Vol. 41 (38, (23 September 2006): pp. 4081-4085.

Abstract

This article is an attempt to understand the causal factors behind fluctuations in aggregate output. We find an absence of bidirectional causality between the gross domestic product residual and the gross domestic capital formation residual as well as between the GDP residual and the residual of the combined expenditures of the central and state governments, while the causality between the balance of trade residual and GDP residual is weakly unidirectional.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Business Cycles; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Granger Causality
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B22 - Macroeconomics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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