Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen

Gammadigbé, Vigninou (2013): Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen.

Abstract

In the context of the theory of the optimum currency areas, Frankel and Rose [1998] have proposed the endogeneity thesis of the optimality criteria which they demonstrate by highlighting a significantly positive relation between business cycles synchronization and trade intensity of the monetary union countries. This demonstration admits limits and can lead to erroneous conclusions. It hides an important dimension of the endogeneity of the optimality criteria: the business cycles convergence. From the experience of three monetary unions, we first demonstrate that the endogeneity of the monetary unions can only and rigorously be verified afterwards. We demonstrate secondly that, in addition to a positive relation between business cycles synchronization and trade integration, a cyclical convergence of the economies over the period prior to the monetary union would make the thesis of endogeneity more plausible.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria: a re-examination
• Language: French
• Keywords: Optimum currency area, Cyclical convergence, Trade integration, Asymmetric shocks
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References

Baxter, M. et M. A. Kouparitsas[2005], Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: a Robust Analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52 (1), pp. 113-157.

Baxter, M. et R. G. King [1999], Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81 (4), pp. 575-593.

Bayoumi T. et B. Eichengreen [1992], Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification, CEPR Discussion paper, No 643.

Blanchard, O. et D. Quah [1989], The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances, American Economic Review, September, pp. 654-673.

Caldéron, C., A. Chong et E. Stein [2007], Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: are Developing Countries Any Different ? Journal of International Economics, 71 (1), pp. 2-21.

Darvas, Z., A. K. Rose et G. Szapáry [2005], Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic, NBER Working Papers 11580, National Bureau of Economic Research.

De Grauwe, P. [1975], The Interaction of Monetary Policies in a Group of European Countries, Journal of International Economics, 5, pp. 207-228.

Eichengreen [1990], Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area ? CEPR Discussion paper, No 78.

Fleming, J. M. [1971], On Exchange Rate Unification, The Economic Journal, Vol. 41, pp. 467-488.

Frankel, J. A. et A. K. Rose [1997], Is EMU More Justifiable ex post than ex ante ? European Economic Review, 41 (3-5), pp. 753-760.

Frankel, J. A. et A. K. Rose [1998], TheEndogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Economic Journal, 108 (449), pp. 1009-1025.

Hédreville M. W., la théorie des zones monétaires optimales et la thèse de l'endogénéité des critères d'optimalité: les enseignements de l'union monétaire scandinave (1873-1914),Université Paris X Nanterre.

Hodrick R. et E. Prescott [1980], Postwar U.S. Business cycles : An Empirical Investigation, Document de Travail, 451, Carnagie-Mellon University.

Imbs, J. [2004], Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization, Review of Economics and Statistics, 86 (3), pp. 723-734.

Ingram, J. [1969], Comment: The Optimum Currency Problem, in R. Mundell et A. Swoboda, Monetary Problems in International Economy, Chicago University Press.

Inklaar, R., R. Jong-A-Pin et J. de Haan [2008], Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD countries: A Re-examination, European Economic Review, 52(4), pp. 646-666.

Johnson H. G. [1970], Further Essays in Monetary Theory, Harvard University Press.

Kenen, P. B. [1969], The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: an Eclectic View,in R. A. Mundell, A. Swoboda (dir.), Monetary Problems of the International Economy, University of Chicago Press.

Krugman, P. [1993], Lesson of Massachusetts for EMU, in Giavazzi, F. et Torres, F. (Eds.), The Transition to Economic and Monetary Union Europe. New York: Cambridge, University Press, pp.241–261.

McKinnon R. I. [1963], Optimum currency areas, American Economic Review, Vol. 52 pp. 717-724

Mundell, R. A. [1961], A Theory of Optimal Currency Areas,American Economic Review, 51 (4), pp. 667-665.

Tapsoba, S. J-A. [2007], Bilateral Trade and Business Cycles Synchronization:African Monetary Integration Perspective, Economics Bulletin, 6 (25), pp. 1-15.

Tapsoba, S. J-A. [2009a], Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa, Journal of African Economies, 18 (2), pp. 287-318.

Tapsoba, S. J-A.[2009b], Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'hétérogénéité des Chocs ? Etudes et Documents E 2009.12, CERDI, avril 2009, 34P.

Vaubel, R. [1976], Real Exchange Rate Changes in the European Community-The Empirical Evidence and its Implications for European Currency Unification, Review of World Economics, Vol. 112(3), pp.429-470.

Vaubel, R. [1978], Real Exchange Rate Changes in the European Community: A new approach to the determination of optimum currency areas, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 8 (2), pp.319-339.