Dale, Charles (1983): Multinomial Probit Models of Military Enlistments: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Algorithms. Published in: American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, Toronto, Canada (15 August 1983): pp. 336-340.
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Abstract
The increasing popularity of qualitative response models in recent years has led to the development of sophisticated algorithms to solve them. The relative efficiency and accuracy of various algorithms is a subject of considerable importance to the Army, because the results derived from probit models may be used increasingly by Army decision makers. This paper compares the accuracy and cost of several types of algorithms used to model the decision whether or not to enlist in the military. The paper concludes that econometricians who undertake analyses using large databases for cross-sectional studies will gain very little by using some of the recently developed algorithms such as BHHH. These new methods represent elegant and impressive theoretical achievements, but in practice they do not justify their enormous cost.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Multinomial Probit Models of Military Enlistments: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Algorithms |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Probit Models; Military Economics: Simulations |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C40 - General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C69 - Other |
Item ID: | 49339 |
Depositing User: | Dr. Charles Dale |
Date Deposited: | 28 Aug 2013 20:13 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2019 03:48 |
References: | Amemiya, T., “Qualitative Response Models: A Survey,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XIX, No. 4, Dec. 1981, pp. 1483-1536. Ash, Colin, Udis, Bernard and McNown, Robert F., “Enlistments in the All-Volunteer Force,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 73, March 1983, 145-155. Baldwin, Major Robert H., Daula, Captain Thomas V., and Fagan, Major Thomas W., “Some Microdata Evidence of Enlistment, Attrition and Reenlistment, “ manuscript, Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis, USMA, West Point, New York, Nov. 4, 1982. Berndt, E. K., Hall, B. H., Hall, R. E. and Hausman, J. A., “Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models,” Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vols. 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665. Black, Matthew, “Personal Discount Rates: Estimates for the Military Population,” Arlington, VA: Systems Research and Applications Corporation, May 20, 1983. Center for Human Resource Research, “The National Longitudinal Studies Handbook,” Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University, 1982. Cylke, Steven, Goldberg, Matthew, Hogan, Paul and Mairs, Lee, “The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Career Decisions,” Economic Analysis Report (OP-162), Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, December 1982. Daganzo, Carlos, “Multinomial Probit: The Theory and its Application to Demand Forecasting,” New York: Academic Press, 1979. Dale, Charles and Gilroy, Curtis, “The Effects of the Business Cycle on the Size and Composition of the U.S. Army,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. XI, No. 1, March 1983, 43-53. Dale, Charles and Gilroy, Curtis, “Determinants of Enlistments: A Macroeconomic Time-Series View,” Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 10, No. 2, Winter 1984, 192-210. Dale, Charles, and Curtis Gilroy, "Enlistments in the All-Volunteer Force: Note," The American Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 3, June 1985, 547-551. Daula, Captain Thomas V., Fagan, Major Thomas W. and Smith, D. Alton, “A Microdata Model of Enlistment in the Armed Forces,” paper presented to the American Econometric Society, Ithaca, New York, June 18, 1982. Greene, William, “LIMDEP,” manuscript, Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University, 1982. Maddala, G. S., “Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics,” New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/49339 |