Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth

Serwa, Dobromił (2007): Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth.

Abstract

We propose a method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the downward impact of recessions on banking activity. In contrast to earlier research, we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises. The extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates. The results, based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises, suggest that the size of a crisis matters for economic growth. Lower credit, deposit and money growth during crises cause GDP growth to decline.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: National Bank of Poland
• Language: English
• Keywords: banking crises; costs; output growth; event-study
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets

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