The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises

Caporin, Massimiliano and Fontini, Fulvio (2014): The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises.

Abstract

Venice (Italy) is built on several islands inside a lagoon. It undergoes a periodical �ooding phenomenon, called "Acqua Alta" (AA). A system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., is currently under construction to protect it. When needed, several fl�oodgates will be lifted to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic sea. AA, whose length and height has been increasing in recent years, is a random phenomenon, correlated with local sea level rise (LSLR). Several possible LSLRs can be assumed as consequences of different global warming scenarios. We investigate here the cost-bene�t of Mo.S.E. under different possible LSLRs. First, we simulate the future patterns of AA for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Then, we calculate the bene�t of Mo.S.E., converting each avoided AA episode into an economic value (avoided cost). We show that the bene�ts are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reache a catastrophic (yet unpredictable) extreme level.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Cost-benefit, Acqua Alta, Tide level simulation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D61 - Allocative Efficiency ; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Bioeconomics ; Industrial Ecology

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