Rainfall Drought Simulating Using Stochastic SARIMA Models for Gadaref Region, Sudan

Moahmed Hassan, Hisham and Mahgoub Mohamed, Tariq (2014): Rainfall Drought Simulating Using Stochastic SARIMA Models for Gadaref Region, Sudan.

Abstract

Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural and water resources in this paper presents linear stochastic models known as multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) used to simulate droughts in Gadaref region, Sudan. The models are applied to simulate droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series, the results show that the fitted model is adequate to the SPI_6 for Gadaref station is the SARIMA (0, 0, 5) (1.0.1) model.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: SPI, Drought, Forecasting, SARIMA, Sudan.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation > Q25 - Water; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General

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