Evaluation of Realized Volatility Predictions from Models with Leptokurtically and Asymmetrically Distributed Forecast Errors

Degiannakis, Stavros and Livada, Alexandra (2013): Evaluation of Realized Volatility Predictions from Models with Leptokurtically and Asymmetrically Distributed Forecast Errors. Forthcoming in: Journal of Applied Statistics (2015)

Abstract

Accurate volatility forecasting is a key determinant for portfolio management, risk management and economic policy. The paper provides evidence that the sum of squared standardized forecast errors is a reliable measure for model evaluation when the predicted variable is the intra-day realized volatility. The forecasting evaluation is valid for standardized forecast errors with leptokurtic distribution as well as with leptokurtic and asymmetric distribution. Additionally, the widely applied forecasting evaluation function, the predicted mean squared error, fails to select the adequate model in the case of models with residuals that are leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed. Hence, the realized volatility forecasting evaluation should be based on the standardized forecast errors instead of their unstandardized version.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: integrated volatility, intra-day, predicted mean squared error, realized volatility, standardized prediction error criterion, simulating forecast errors, ultra-high frequency, volatility forecasting evaluation.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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