On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan

Nakashima, Kiyotaka and Saito, Makoto (2012): On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan. Published in: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies , Vol. 26, No. 3 (2012): pp. 454-471.

Abstract

Using Japanese money market data, this paper compares the predictive ability of the log-log specification with infinite elasticity at a zero interest rate and the semilog specification with a one time switch from moderate to relatively high semielasticity at annual interest rates less than 0.5%. We find that the latter specification dominates the former in terms of predictive ability for the extremely low interest rate regime (the period between 1999 and 2006) because under the former the semielasticity is excessively sensitive to slight changes in interest rates. We find that interest rate semielasticity has remained stable at a high level since the mid-1990s.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: money demand, zero interest rate policy, structural break, bootstrap, predictive ability comparison.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E41 - Demand for Money; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy

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