Macroeconomic risks of Mongolia and ways to mitigate them

Bataa, Erdenebat (2012): Macroeconomic risks of Mongolia and ways to mitigate them.

Abstract

The paper explores some of the most prominent macroeconomic risks Mongolia is facing at this stage of her development and provides recommendations to reduce them. These have been classified into four main themes: Financial market risks, portfolio risk of Mongolian export basket, macroeconomic mismanagement, and institutional deterioration. The most important of these is argued to be the possible deterioration in the institutional quality. Since the point resources are easy to appropriate various interest groups have incentives to distort the institutions so that extracting the rent is easier. Fighting corruption and creating a stable legal environment where the rule of law and the property rights are respected should be high on the agenda.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: macroeconomic risk, Mongolia, overcrowding, debt overhang, financial risk, export portfolio diversification, pro-cyclicality.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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