Fiscal deficit composition and economic growth relation in India: A time series econometric analysis

Ramu M R, Anantha and Gayithri, K (2016): Fiscal deficit composition and economic growth relation in India: A time series econometric analysis. Published in: ISEC Working Paper , Vol. No-367, No. 367 (15 September 2016): pp. 1-18.

Abstract

High and persistent fiscal deficit is one of the major macroeconomic problems in India since the mid-1980s. Fiscal consolidation is in the forefront of policy discussion in India not only at present but since the early 1990s. However the actual administrative measure to control it constitutionally by enacting an Act took place in 2003 and the Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management (FRBM) Act came into force in April 2004. The major reason behind controlling fiscal deficit is its adverse effect on the macro economy, particularly output growth. Monetary policy makers in India (RBI) argue that high deficit will adversely affect growth and hence requires control. But fiscal policy makers (Ministry of Finance) argue that government spending will promote growth. Hence, there exists a puzzle about how fiscal deficit is affecting GDP in India. This paper tries to answer the puzzle by taking up a long-term time series analysis starting from 1980-81 to 2012-13. It also carries a detailed analysis by including the composition of fiscal deficit and its impact on GDP. By adopting a Vector Error Correction method, this paper proves that fiscal deficit is adversely affecting growth and also argues that if fiscal deficit money is spent on capital formation, it promotes growth, supporting the ‘Golden Rule’ of public finance.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Fiscal Deficit, Economic Growth, VEC
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

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